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[Editor’s Note:  In Part I of this series, Dr. Nick Marsella addressed the duty we have to examine our assumptions about emergent warfighting technologies / capabilities and their associated implications to identify potential second / third order and “evil” effects. Nike Air Max Renegade Men's Size 9 Sneakers Shoes Leather Black/Black 431998-020Nike Air Max 97 Mid RT Ricardo Tisci US 9 Jordan Air Max Yeezy OFF-WHITE In today’s post, he prescribes five actions we can embrace both individually and as organizations to avoid confirmation bias and falling into cognitive thinking traps when confronting the ramifications of emergent technologies — Enjoy!]

In part I of my blog post, I advised those advocating for the development and/or fielding of technology to be mindful of the second/third order and possible “evil” effects. I defined “evil” as an unexpected and profound negative implication(s) of the adoption/adaption of a technology and related policy. I also recommended heeding the admonition of Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, to take responsibility for our technological creations and have the courage to think things through their potential implications – both for the good and the bad.

But even if we as individuals are willing to challenge our assumptions and think broadly and imaginatively, we can still come up short.  Why?  The answer is due in part to the challenges of prediction and the fact we are human with both great cognitive abilities, but also weaknesses.

THE CHALLENGES

First, common sense and many theorists remind us that the future is unknowable.Nike Air Max Motion LW Sneakers Men's Lifestyle ShoesJordan Cool Grey 9 Size 7.5 2002 Vintage Classic NikeThe futurist Arthur C. Clark noted in 1962, “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” Within this fixed condition of unknowing, the U.S. Departments of Defense and the Army must make choices to determine:

– what capabilities we desire and its related technology;

– where to invest in research and development; and

– what to purchase and field.Nike Lebron 11 Miami Knight Size 9 Pink BlackNike Basketball Grey High Tops Size 9

Source: Penguin Random House

As Michael E. Raynor pointed out in his book, MEN'S NEW NIKE FREE TRAINER 5.0 V6 TB SHOES WHITE/BLACK 723987-100 SIZE 8 US, making choices and developing strategies, which include adopting new technology, where the future is unknowable and “deeply unpredictable” either produces monumental successes or monumental failures.Nike Air Max 90 PRM "Safari" Shoes 700155-006 Cool Grey/Bamboo-Black Men’s Sz 12VTG OG Nike Shark Leather White Low Shoes Cleats Display Box NOS New Mens Sz 7.5 For a company this can spell financial ruin, while for the Army, it can spell disaster and the loss of Soldiers’ lives and national treasure.  Yet, we must also choose a “way ahead” – often by considering “boundaries” – in a sense the left and right limits – of potential implications.

Second, our ability to predict when technology will become available is often in error nor can we accurately determine its implications. For example, in a New York Times editorial on December 8, 1903, it noted:  “A man carrying airplane will eventually be built, Nike Men's Zoom All Out Flyknit Running ShoeNike Air Force 1 Mid Mens 315123-205 Ridgerock Black Leather Shoes Size 12but only if mathematicians and engineers work steadily for the next ten million years.”5  The Wright Brothers first flight took place the following week, but it took decades for commercial and military aviation to evolve.

The stillborn Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the U.S. Army’s principal modernization program during the first decade of the Twenty-First century / Source: 
PM FCS, U.S. Army

Each of the services has faced force modernization challenges due to the adoption of technologies that weren’t mature enough; whose capabilities were over-promised; or did not support operations in the envisioned Operational Environment.  For the U.S. Army, Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the most obvious and recent example of this challenge – costing billions of dollars and, just as importantly, lost time and confidence.NIKE SB BLAZER LOW GT QS "Cat's Paw" Black / Vivid Orange / White AV3028 001 NEWNike Lebron 13 Size 7men Knicks Blue Orange

Third, in terms of future technology, predictions vary widely. For example, predictions by MIT’s Rodney Brooks and futurist/inventor Ray Kurzweil vary widely to the question – “What year do you think human-level Artificial Intelligence [AI, i.e., a true thinking machine] might be achieved with a 50% probability?” Kurzweil predicts AI (as defined) will be available in 2029, while Brooks is a bit more conservative – the year 2200 – a difference of over 170 years.NIKE TR MAX 360 TB RUNNING SHOES TEAM CRIMSON WHITE 599286-602 Mens Sz 11Nike Air Jordan X SoleFly Eclipse SP SZ 7.5 Arctic Orange 893513-805

While one can understand the difficulty of predicting when “general AI” will be available, other technologies offer similar difficulties. The vision of the “self-driving” autonomous vehicle was first written about and experimented with in the 1920s, yet technological limitations, legal concerns, customer fears, and other barriers make implementing this capability challenging.

Gartner Hype Cycle / Source: Nicole Saraco Loddo, Gartner

Lastly, as Rodney Brooks has highlighted, 2013 Lebron 10 Low Sonic Yellow 6579765 700 Sz 9.5 maintains:

we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”Nike Zoom Live II EP 2 White Reflect Silver Gum Men Basketball AH7567-100 Size 8

SECOND, THIRD ORDER AND EVIL EFFECTS

I contend that we either:Nike Roshe One Mens 511881-405 Midnight Navy Blue Mesh Running Shoes Size 13WOMEN'S NIKE FREE RN MOTION FLYKNIT 2017 RUNNING SHOES

intentionally focus on the positive effects of adopting a technology;

ignore the experts and those who identify the potential downside of technology; and

fail to think thorough the short, long, and potentially dangerous effects or dependencies – imaginatively.

We do this because we are human, and more often because we fall into the confirmation bias or other cognitive thinking traps that might affect our program or pet technology. As noted by RAND in Truth Decay:Nike Trainerendor Sneakers Burgandy / Navy 616575-641 Men’s 11.5Nike Internationalist Premium Trainers Trainers Sneaker Leisure Shoe Leather

Source: Pixabay

Cognitive biases and the ways in which human beings process information and make decisions cause people to look for information, opinion, and analyses that confirm preexisting beliefs, to weigh experience more heavily than data and facts, and then to rely on mental shortcuts and the beliefs of those in the same social networks when forming opinions and making decisions.”9

Yet, the warning signs or signals for many unanticipated effects can be found simply by conducting a literature review of government, think tank, academic, and popular reports (to perhaps include science fiction). This may deter some, given the sheer volume of literature is often overwhelming, but contained within these reports are many of the challenges associated with future technology, such as:  the potential for deep fakes, loss of privacy, hacking,Nike Men Free TR Training Shoes Running Black Pink Sneakers Shoe 474085-401Nike Air Max Goadome ACG Boot Deep Burgendy Mens Size US9 Free USPS Priority Shi accidents, deception, and loss of industries/jobs.

At the national level, both the current and previous administrations published reports on AI, as has the Department of Defense – some more balanced in addressing of issues of fairness, safety, governance, and ethics.10

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For example, using photo recognition to help law enforcement and others seems like a great idea, yet its use is increasingly being questioned. This past May, San Francisco became the first city to ban its use, and others may follow suit.11  While some question this decision to ban vice impose a moratorium until the technology produces less errors, the question remains – did the developers and policy makers consider if there would be push back to its introduction given its current performance?Nike Air Force 1 Comfort PRM Weatherman Mens Multicolor Shoes Sz 10 599457-100Nike air Griffey III SZ 9 What sources did they consult?

Another challenge is language. You’ve seen the commercials – “there is much we can do with AI” – in farming, business, and even beer making.  While “AI” is a clever tag line, it may invoke unnecessary fear and misunderstanding.  For example, I believe for most people equate “robotics” and “AI” with the “Terminator” franchise, raising the fear of uncontrolled autonomous military force overwhelming humanity.  Even worse – under the moniker of “AI,” we will buy into “snake-oil” propositions.

We are at least decades away from “general AI” where a “system exhibits apparently intelligence behavior at least as advanced as a person” across the “full range of cognitive tasks,” but we continue to flaunt the use of “AI” without elaboration.Air Jordan Retro 6 retro "Olympic" 2012 WH/ Midnt Navy 384664 130 Sz. 10Nike Air Force 1 Denim sz 12 624040-143

SOME ACTIONS TO TAKE

Embrace a learning organization. Popularized by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990), a learning organization is a place “where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together.”NIKE AIR ZOOM PEGASUS 31 MEN VOLT SIZE 8.0 RUNNING RARE NEW AUTHENTIC While some question whether we can truly make a learning organization, Senge’s thinking may help solve our problem of identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects.

First, we must embrace new and expansive patterns of thinking.  Force developers use the acronym – “DOTMPLF-P” as shorthand for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities, and Policy implications – yet other factors might be as important.

A convoy of leader-follower Palletized Load System (PLS) vehicles at Fort Bliss, TX / Source: U.S. Army photo by Jerome AliottaNike Air Jordan 29 Low XX9 Men's Basketball Shoes Size 11NIKE Zoom KOBE KB 24 Low Black White Texture Basketball Shoes Sneaker New Mens 8

For example, trust in automated or robotics systems must be instilled and measured.  In one poll, 73% of respondents noted they would be afraid of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle – up 10% points from the previous year.14  What if we develop a military autonomous vehicle or a leader-follower system and one or more of our host nation allies prohibits its use? What happens if an accident occurs and the host population protests, Nike Hyperdunk 2017 Flyknit MULTICOLOR MULTI COLOR RAINBOW 917726-006 sz 11Nike Roshe Run Print Men Size 10.0 Summit White New Rare Authentic Comfortablearguing that the Americans don’t care for their safety?

Technologists and concept developers must move from being stove-piped in labs and single-focused to consider the broader view of technological implications across functions.

Embrace Humility. Given that we cannot predict the future and its potential consequences, developers must seek out diversified opinions, and more importantly, recognize divergent opinions.

U.S. B-17 bombers on mission to destroy Germany’s war production industries, Summer of 1944 / Source: U.S. Air Force photo

Embrace the Data.  In New York City during World War II, a small organization of some of the most brilliant minds in America worked in the office of the “Applied Mathematics Panel.”  In Europe, the 8th U.S. Air Force suffered from devastating bomber losses.  Nike air jordan 4 retro mars Blackmon 2012 releaseNike Air Pegasus AT Premium Men Trainer. Black. Sizes 6 - 11. RRP .95Leaders wondered where best to reinforce the bombers with additional armor without significantly increasing their weight to improve survivability. Reports indicated returning bombers suffered gunfire hits over the wings and fuselage, but not in the tail or cockpits, so to the casual observer it made sense to reinforce the wings and fuselage where the damage was clearly visible.

Abraham Wald, a mathematician, worked on the problem. He noted that reinforcing the spots where damage was evident in returning aircraft wasn’t necessarily the best course of action, given that hits to the cockpit and tail were probably causing aircraft (and aircrew) losses during the mission.  In a series of memorandums, he developed a “method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors.” As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted more than 100 years ago,  “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”Nike Air Force 1 Ultraforce Men's Low Top Shoes in Light Bone BeigeNike Runallday [898464-400] Men Running Shoes Blue/Platinum

Additionally, we need to reinforce our practice of performing quality literature reviews to aid in our identification of these issues.

The office of Devil’s Advocate was established by Pope Sixtus V in 1587 / Source: Wikimedia Commons, Artist unknownNike Air Max Tavas Print [742781-600] Running Red/Burgundy-WhiteNike Free Flyknit NSW - Pink Flash - size 10.5

Employ Skepticism and a Devil’s Advocate Approach.  In 1587, the Roman Catholic Church created the position of Promoter of the Faith – commonly referred to as the Devil’s Advocate. To insure a candidate for sainthood met the qualification of being canonized, the role of the Devil’s Advocate was to be the skeptic (loyal to the institution), looking for reasons why not to canonize the individual.  Similarly, Leaders must embrace the concept of employing a devil’s advocate approach to identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects of technology – if not designating a devil’s advocate with the right expertise to identify assumptions, risks, and effects. But creating any devil’s advocate or “risk identification” positions is only useful if their input is seriously considered.

Embrace the Suck.  Lastly, if we are serious in identifying the 2nd/3rd order and evil effects, Nike Men's Flight Bonafide Basketball ShoeNike Men's Zoom Veer Training Shoeto include identifying new dependencies, ethical issues, or other issues which challenge the adaption or development of a new technology or policy – then we must be honest, resilient, and tough. There will be setbacks, delays, and frustration.

FINAL THOUGHT

Technology holds the power to improve and change our personal and professional lives.  For the military, technology changes the ways wars are fought (i.e., the character of war), but it may also change the nature of war by potentially reducing the “human dimension” in war.  If robotics, AI, and other technological developments eliminate “danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction,”17 is war easier to wage?  Will technology increase its potential frequency?  Will technology create a further separation between the military and the population by decreasing the number of personnel needed? These may be some of the 2nd/3rd order and “evil” effects we need to consider.

If you enjoyed this post, please see Dr. Marsella’s previous post “Second/Third Order, and Evil Effects” – The Dark Side of Technology (Roshe One Mens Style : 511881 Mens WHITE/WHITE SZ 18)

… as well as the following posts:NIKE Men's Air Max Zero Essential Running ShoeNike Lavadome Ultra Zapatillas Hombre 844574 002 Zapatillas

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[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish today’s post by guest blogger LTCOL Greg Colton, Australian Army, addressing the intellectual component of military power.  In our current drive to modernize the U.S. Army into a Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-Capable Force by 2028 and set the conditions for fielding an MDO-Ready Force in 2035, we must not forget the lessons learned from our last major transformation in the 1980s. 33 New Nike Air Trainer SC Winter Mens 9.5 11.5 Shoes Black Sail Gum AA1120 001Nike Clásico Cortez Se Zapatillas Running Hombre 902801 Zapatillas 700 The tactical and operational excellence that enabled us to completely rout Iraqi ground forces in 100 hours was not only the result of effective doctrine and the acquisition of the “Big 5” weapon systems, but also due to the development of our Combat Training Centers (CTCs) and Leader Development platforms like the Non-Commissioned Officer Education System and the School of Advanced Military Studies. Read on to learn how one of our key allies is approaching their Army’s Professional Military Education.]

LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army

We must push ourselves to think in creative and unconstrained ways to ensure our warfighting philosophy is appropriate and informs our future capabilities” — LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army, in Accelerated Warfare

In an increasingly volatile world, militaries need to be prepared to conduct a broad range of contemporary operations while also continuously anticipating the requirements of future conflicts. As the Australian Chief of Army Nike Air Zoom Kobe Bryant XI 11 Elite Low AS All Star Game Green Glow Sz 13, “Preparedness is dynamic. It requires us to be ready now, while concurrently becoming future ready.” Key to this is the development of the Nike Air Max 2015 Running Shoes Grey Volt Green 3M Reflective Mens Size 8, both of individuals and of the Army as an organisation, so that the Army is able to adapt to changes in circumstances quickly enough to win future conflicts.

Yet, as the NIKE AIR MAX 90 ESSENTIAL MEN'S BLACK/BLACK-BLACK 537384 090 points out, “military institutions recognize the need for leaders who can adapt, but struggle with exactly how to teach or train them to do so.” Within the Australian Army, Professional Military Education (PME) is an important component of a wider approach that blends training, education, and experience to develop a workforce able to cope with the demands of war in an ever-changing environment.

The Army’s approach to PME

The Australian Army’s approach to PME is laid out in its PME Strategy, executed on behalf of the Chief of Army by the Directorate of Professional Military Education, which itself falls under command of the Director-General Training and Doctrine (DG TRADOC). The Directorate uses two broad approaches to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power. First, using the principle of connectivism it seeks to connect those who can impart specialist knowledge to the workforce. Secondly, it seeks to develop organisational adaptability through promoting a contest of ideas. It delivers these approaches through a number of different mechanisms which allows content to be tailored to the target audience. These mechanisms include its online portal, NIKE AIR MAX 93 306551 104 WHITE/BLUE NEBULA-TOTAL ORANGE-BLACK, unit PME packages, webinars, and conferences.

Connectivism

Trialing a UGV during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2019 with the U.S. / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; CPL Tristan Kennedy, Photographer

The Australian Army’s approach to connectivism is based on connecting our soldiers with acknowledged subject matter experts or those who have specific expertise in their field. A good example of the former is TX Hammes who gave a CoveTalk on the development of artificial intelligence in unmanned platforms, while an example of the latter is this article by a military workshop manager on improving the efficiency of his workshop’s layout and processes. Regardless of the source, connectivism enables the Army to link both experts and expertise with the wider workforce to develop the intellectual component of fighting power within our individual soldiers and officers. In doing so, it promotes the dissemination of best practice across the force.

Australian Army soldiers during Exercise Night Naip 2014 with the Papua New Guinea Defence Force / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; Leading Seaman Justin Brown, Photographer

However, this approach only provides half of the solution. For argument’s sake, let’s take as a given that warfare is an ever-evolving phenomenon. As such,LEBRON X ALL STAR EXCELLENT CONDITION SIZE 7Y GSNike Air Max 90 Hal Premium Leather Running Shoe, Black/Black-Medium Olive, 11.5 best practice in and of itself cannot be enough, as the very term indicates the pre-determination of an optimal solution derived within a static set of variables. The uniqueness of each theatre, campaign, battlefield, or individual soldier’s field of fire will mean that the variables on which best practice has been developed will never exactly replicate. Consequently, tactical solutions to complex problems will rarely (if ever) be found using a cookie cutter NIKE LEBRON SOLDIER XII MEN'S SNEAKER AO2609-401Nike Lunarepic Low Flyknit 2 Mens Running Grey/Multi-Color 863779-003 Sz 8 & 11template. Instead, we need an Army that is institutionally flexible enough to recognise and incorporate emerging practice to solve unique problem sets. In other words, if best practice provides the theoretical foundations required to understand the tactical problem, emerging practice provides the intellectual adaptability to actually solve it.

A contest of ideas

This leads us to the second approach we use to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power: Nike Air Max 1 FB QS 744491-001 Black/Brght Crmsn-White-Bl Lgn Men's Size 11.5NIKE Shox Gravity Training Running Shoes Mens Sz 6 Gunsmoke Grey AQ8553 006 promoting a contest of ideas.  Fostering a culture of contesting ideas has two benefits. Firstly, it gives our people the confidence to analyse the unique problem set they are faced with and recommend bespoke solutions to a hierarchy that is often one or two steps removed from the ground truth. Secondly, and just as importantly, it inculcates an organisational culture within the Army that is willing to recognise, and accept, emerging practice (i.e., the recommendations from those trying to solve the current problem) rather than always insisting on best practice (i.e., what we have always done in similar circumstances). This is essential if we are to win future wars.RARE Nike Free OG 2014 Tokyo City Pack 669595 300 Seaweed Black Mens Size 11Air Jordan RW Why Not Zer0.1 Triple White Black Russell Westbrook AA2510-100

Australian Army Boxer 8×8 Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle (CRV) with 30mm automatic cannon / Source:  Multiple Australian media sites

A good example of how the Australian Army promotes a contest of ideas is The Cove’s recent Brand New Mens SF AF1 864024-400 Midnight Navy Size 12, in which readers were invited to submit a ‘script’ of no more than 100 words on what they thought the Army of 2030 should look like. Run over the period of a calendar month, it generated 48 entries from a broad range of authors,NEW Nike Air Max 180 Ultramarine White Blue Solar Red Retro 2018 sz 7.5Nike Mens Air Max 90 Ultra 2.0 LTR Running Shoe (11.5) from front-line practitioners to life-long academics. Collectively, these scripts were viewed over 93,000 times in 31 days and were the genesis for numerous comments on our website, within units and messes across the country, and on social media. At the end of the competition,NIKE LEBRON XII 12 HEART OF A LION UNIVERSITY RED MEN'S SZ 11 684593 - 601Nike Men's Jordan Flight Shoes NEW AUTHENTIC Black/Gym Red/White 654262-002 the entries and online discussion were captured and passed on to the Australian Army’s Directorate of Future Land Warfare to inform its work.

This ‘crowd sourcing’ of ideas doesn’t just support the work of those tasked with thinking about the future structures and capabilities of the Army. It also encourages the Army’s people to think about the future of warfare, encourages debate on how the organisation can best meet the challenges of the future, and gives our people the confidence to contribute to that debate.

A complementary approach

The Australian Army’s Combat Training Centre – Jungle Training Wing (CTC-JTW) in TullyNIKE AIR MAX 1 JEWEL PREMIUM SC SZ 12 NEUTRAL OLIVE GOLD SAND 918354 201New-In-Box! Nike Lebron James 11 (XI) Low Shoes Men's Sizes 8, 8.5, 11

Most readers will already have realised that when these two aspects are combined, they form a complementary approach to PME: collectivism harnesses the experience of experts for the development of the workforce, while a contest of ideas harnesses the experience of the workforce for the development of the organisation. If the Army is to be truly adaptive, one cannot exist without the other. An organisation which always insists on best practice, rather than emerging practice,Nike NikeLab Zoom Fly SP Shanghai Dark Loden Stucco AA3172-300 Men's Sz 7 is risking ruin through imposing dogmatic solutions to complex problems, while an army that automatically reacts to instantaneous suggestions from the workforce, ungrounded in theoretical understanding, risks repeating the mistakes of the past.

Thus, contributions need to be sought from a broad range of viewpoints if the Army is to be ready for future conflict. As Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank is at Nike Mens SB Dunk Low Pro Shoes Midnight Navy Black White 313170-402 Size 9:  “Nobody has a monopoly on good ideas.” This is particularly important to remember within hierarchical organisations such as the military.Nike Kyrie 3 Cookies and Cream Black White 917724-100 Men's Size 14 NO BOX LIDNike Jordan Winterized Spiz'ike Shoes 375356-201 Mens 16 14 It can be all too easy for generals, staff officers, or senior public servants to fall into the trap of believing that experience alone is the foundation of hard-earned knowledge, and that new ideas from juniors that challenge doctrine, the status quo, or the strategic narrative are unnecessarily subversive.

Soldiers from the 7th Combat Signal Regiment (7 CSR) / Source:  NIKE AIR JORDAN 1 RETRO HIGH BG (705300-603) GYM RED/SUEDE SZ. 4.5Y=WMNS 6Nike Air TRAINER 1 10.5 MID PRM QS 607081 001 DRAFT DAY premium NRG M3 Turf

Yet, when the next war comes it will not be the desk officers or policy experts that do the fighting, or the dying, in foreign fields. It is the young military practitioner who, regardless of rank, will find themselves trying to solve a unique problem set in the most testing of circumstances. In the words of Nassim Taleb, it is they who have ‘KD 5 “CHRISTMAS” 2012 ITEM NUMBER 4309-21.’ As such, we owe that young soldier or officer not only the very best foundational professional military education we can give them, but also an organisation willing and able to adapt to bespoke solutions based on ground truth. As an Army, we must set the conditions such that our people challenging the status quo and contesting ideas is our organisation’s comfort zone.

This requires a complementary approach to PME, developed and delivered now, so that we may enhance the intellectual component of fighting power in time for the Army to fight, and win, the next war. It is an approach that the team at The Cove is dedicated to delivering for the Australian Army.

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