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[Editor’s Note:  In Part I of this series, Dr. Nick Marsella addressed the duty we have to examine our assumptions about emergent warfighting technologies / capabilities and their associated implications to identify potential second / third order and “evil” effects. NIKE Lebron James XII NSRL Hyper Turquoise Grey Shoes Size 12Nike Air Pillar 525226-011 Basketball Shoe Size 13 DS Retro Jerry Rice In today’s post, he prescribes five actions we can embrace both individually and as organizations to avoid confirmation bias and falling into cognitive thinking traps when confronting the ramifications of emergent technologies — Enjoy!]

In part I of my blog post, I advised those advocating for the development and/or fielding of technology to be mindful of the second/third order and possible “evil” effects. I defined “evil” as an unexpected and profound negative implication(s) of the adoption/adaption of a technology and related policy. I also recommended heeding the admonition of Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, to take responsibility for our technological creations and have the courage to think things through their potential implications – both for the good and the bad.

But even if we as individuals are willing to challenge our assumptions and think broadly and imaginatively, we can still come up short.  Why?  The answer is due in part to the challenges of prediction and the fact we are human with both great cognitive abilities, but also weaknesses.

THE CHALLENGES

First, common sense and many theorists remind us that the future is unknowable.New Nike Jordan Horizon Low Men's Basketball Shoes Night Maroon 845098 600Nike Free Trainer 3.0 V4 Amp Shoes Size 9.5 Gold Super Bowl 50 749374-070 $130The futurist Arthur C. Clark noted in 1962, “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” Within this fixed condition of unknowing, the U.S. Departments of Defense and the Army must make choices to determine:

– what capabilities we desire and its related technology;

– where to invest in research and development; and

– what to purchase and field.NEW SZ 10 NIKE 2016 AIR MAX CLASSIC BW PREMIUM BLACK WHITE BEIGE 819523-100Nike Kobe XI 11 Low TB Promo Basketball Black Silver White (856485-001) sz 12.5

Source: Penguin Random House

As Michael E. Raynor pointed out in his book, Nike Air Tech Challenge II SP - US Open - Men's Size 13 US 621358-146, making choices and developing strategies, which include adopting new technology, where the future is unknowable and “deeply unpredictable” either produces monumental successes or monumental failures.Nike Air Max Zero Essential Black/White Tinker Hatfield 876070 101 Size 11Nike ACG Dog Mountain Emerald Rise Black Hyper Magenta Tour Yellow AQ0916-300 For a company this can spell financial ruin, while for the Army, it can spell disaster and the loss of Soldiers’ lives and national treasure.  Yet, we must also choose a “way ahead” – often by considering “boundaries” – in a sense the left and right limits – of potential implications.

Second, our ability to predict when technology will become available is often in error nor can we accurately determine its implications. For example, in a New York Times editorial on December 8, 1903, it noted:  “A man carrying airplane will eventually be built, Nike Jordan CP3.XI Black/University Red -Taxi Size US 13 Men AA1272 002Mens Nike ZOOM FLY SP Running Shoes "Breaking 2" -AJ9282 106 -Sz 7 -Newbut only if mathematicians and engineers work steadily for the next ten million years.”5  The Wright Brothers first flight took place the following week, but it took decades for commercial and military aviation to evolve.

The stillborn Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the U.S. Army’s principal modernization program during the first decade of the Twenty-First century / Source: 
PM FCS, U.S. Army

Each of the services has faced force modernization challenges due to the adoption of technologies that weren’t mature enough; whose capabilities were over-promised; or did not support operations in the envisioned Operational Environment.  For the U.S. Army, Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the most obvious and recent example of this challenge – costing billions of dollars and, just as importantly, lost time and confidence.Nike Air Max 2 Uptempo 94 White Black 922934 102 Duke OG Retro VTG Vintage Sz 11Nike Air Jordan Zoom Tenacity 88 BLACK WHITE 3 ELEPHANT PRINT AV5878-001 sz 12

Third, in terms of future technology, predictions vary widely. For example, predictions by MIT’s Rodney Brooks and futurist/inventor Ray Kurzweil vary widely to the question – “What year do you think human-level Artificial Intelligence [AI, i.e., a true thinking machine] might be achieved with a 50% probability?” Kurzweil predicts AI (as defined) will be available in 2029, while Brooks is a bit more conservative – the year 2200 – a difference of over 170 years.924423-004 Nike Metcon DSX Flyknit 2 Mens 10.5Nike Men's Zoom KD9 elite Basketball Shoe 878637 010 SIZE 9 Retail $150 New

While one can understand the difficulty of predicting when “general AI” will be available, other technologies offer similar difficulties. The vision of the “self-driving” autonomous vehicle was first written about and experimented with in the 1920s, yet technological limitations, legal concerns, customer fears, and other barriers make implementing this capability challenging.

Gartner Hype Cycle / Source: Nicole Saraco Loddo, Gartner

Lastly, as Rodney Brooks has highlighted, Nike Air Jordan 1 MID Mens Basketball Shoes Black/White-White 554724-038 Size 13 maintains:

we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”Nike Air Jordan XXXII Mid (Size 12.5) Why Not OKC Blue Orange AA1253 400

SECOND, THIRD ORDER AND EVIL EFFECTS

I contend that we either:Nike Zoom All Out Low Running Mens Shoes Dark Teal 878670-303Nike Men’s Cross Training Weightlifting Romaleos 3 Shoes Sz. 14 NEW 852933-002

intentionally focus on the positive effects of adopting a technology;

ignore the experts and those who identify the potential downside of technology; and

fail to think thorough the short, long, and potentially dangerous effects or dependencies – imaginatively.

We do this because we are human, and more often because we fall into the confirmation bias or other cognitive thinking traps that might affect our program or pet technology. As noted by RAND in Truth Decay:Men's Nike Lunarepic Low Flyknit Sz 8.5-12 Black/White 843764-002 FREE SHIPPINGNIKE AIR MAX 90 WINTER PREMIUM SHOES SIZE 8.5 NEW FAST SHIPPING (683282-600)

Source: Pixabay

Cognitive biases and the ways in which human beings process information and make decisions cause people to look for information, opinion, and analyses that confirm preexisting beliefs, to weigh experience more heavily than data and facts, and then to rely on mental shortcuts and the beliefs of those in the same social networks when forming opinions and making decisions.”9

Yet, the warning signs or signals for many unanticipated effects can be found simply by conducting a literature review of government, think tank, academic, and popular reports (to perhaps include science fiction). This may deter some, given the sheer volume of literature is often overwhelming, but contained within these reports are many of the challenges associated with future technology, such as:  the potential for deep fakes, loss of privacy, hacking,NIKE AIR UNLIMITED Mens SZ 9.5 PALM GREEN WHITEAir Force 1 Foamposite cup Ah6771-002 Light carbon Men's size 9.5 accidents, deception, and loss of industries/jobs.

At the national level, both the current and previous administrations published reports on AI, as has the Department of Defense – some more balanced in addressing of issues of fairness, safety, governance, and ethics.10

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For example, using photo recognition to help law enforcement and others seems like a great idea, yet its use is increasingly being questioned. This past May, San Francisco became the first city to ban its use, and others may follow suit.11  While some question this decision to ban vice impose a moratorium until the technology produces less errors, the question remains – did the developers and policy makers consider if there would be push back to its introduction given its current performance?Nike Lebron XIV 14 BHM Black History Month White Gold Black Size 9.5 860634-1002007 Nike Air Force One x Fragment Design Hiroshi Size 10.5 What sources did they consult?

Another challenge is language. You’ve seen the commercials – “there is much we can do with AI” – in farming, business, and even beer making.  While “AI” is a clever tag line, it may invoke unnecessary fear and misunderstanding.  For example, I believe for most people equate “robotics” and “AI” with the “Terminator” franchise, raising the fear of uncontrolled autonomous military force overwhelming humanity.  Even worse – under the moniker of “AI,” we will buy into “snake-oil” propositions.

We are at least decades away from “general AI” where a “system exhibits apparently intelligence behavior at least as advanced as a person” across the “full range of cognitive tasks,” but we continue to flaunt the use of “AI” without elaboration.Nike Air Max Invigor Print Running Sneakers Grey Bright Cactus Size 10Nike Jordan 6 Rings "$165" Matte Silver/White/Cool Grey 322992 014 Size 11.5

SOME ACTIONS TO TAKE

Embrace a learning organization. Popularized by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990), a learning organization is a place “where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together.”NIKE SFB 6” SPECIAL FIELD BOOT SZ 13 DARK TEAM RED GUM LEATHER 862507 600 While some question whether we can truly make a learning organization, Senge’s thinking may help solve our problem of identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects.

First, we must embrace new and expansive patterns of thinking.  Force developers use the acronym – “DOTMPLF-P” as shorthand for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities, and Policy implications – yet other factors might be as important.

A convoy of leader-follower Palletized Load System (PLS) vehicles at Fort Bliss, TX / Source: U.S. Army photo by Jerome AliottaLeBron Nike Zoom Soldier 3 III Size 10.5 2009Nike Air Jordan I 1 Retro High Flyknit ROYAL BLUE BLACK 919704-006 sz 14

For example, trust in automated or robotics systems must be instilled and measured.  In one poll, 73% of respondents noted they would be afraid of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle – up 10% points from the previous year.14  What if we develop a military autonomous vehicle or a leader-follower system and one or more of our host nation allies prohibits its use? What happens if an accident occurs and the host population protests, Nike Mens Air Max BW Ultra SE Size 11 Running Shoes Black White Oreo 844967-101NIKE AIR FORCE 1 FOAMPOSITE CUP LIGHT CABRON GREY SZ 10 [AH6771-002]arguing that the Americans don’t care for their safety?

Technologists and concept developers must move from being stove-piped in labs and single-focused to consider the broader view of technological implications across functions.

Embrace Humility. Given that we cannot predict the future and its potential consequences, developers must seek out diversified opinions, and more importantly, recognize divergent opinions.

U.S. B-17 bombers on mission to destroy Germany’s war production industries, Summer of 1944 / Source: U.S. Air Force photo

Embrace the Data.  In New York City during World War II, a small organization of some of the most brilliant minds in America worked in the office of the “Applied Mathematics Panel.”  In Europe, the 8th U.S. Air Force suffered from devastating bomber losses.  Nike Air Max 90 Ultra Superfly HTM Tinker Hatfield Black SZ 8.5 [850613-001]NIKE AIR MORE MONEY MEN'S SIZE 10.5 SHOES BLACK RETRO UPTEMPO AJ2998 001 NEWLeaders wondered where best to reinforce the bombers with additional armor without significantly increasing their weight to improve survivability. Reports indicated returning bombers suffered gunfire hits over the wings and fuselage, but not in the tail or cockpits, so to the casual observer it made sense to reinforce the wings and fuselage where the damage was clearly visible.

Abraham Wald, a mathematician, worked on the problem. He noted that reinforcing the spots where damage was evident in returning aircraft wasn’t necessarily the best course of action, given that hits to the cockpit and tail were probably causing aircraft (and aircrew) losses during the mission.  In a series of memorandums, he developed a “method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors.” As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted more than 100 years ago,  “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”NIKE AIR JORDAN XXXI 31 LOW SIZE SZ 10 WHITE UNIVERSITY RED BLACK 897564-101NIKE AIR HUARACHE DRIFT PREMIUM BLACK-RUSH VIOLET-RUSH ORANGE SZ 9 [AH7335-002]

Additionally, we need to reinforce our practice of performing quality literature reviews to aid in our identification of these issues.

The office of Devil’s Advocate was established by Pope Sixtus V in 1587 / Source: Wikimedia Commons, Artist unknownNIKE ROSHERUN ROSHE RUN CALYPSO PURE PLATINUM GREY TEAL SIZE 12Nike Jordan Ultra.Fly Shoes NEW AUTHENTIC Cool Grey/Black/White 834268-003 sz 11

Employ Skepticism and a Devil’s Advocate Approach.  In 1587, the Roman Catholic Church created the position of Promoter of the Faith – commonly referred to as the Devil’s Advocate. To insure a candidate for sainthood met the qualification of being canonized, the role of the Devil’s Advocate was to be the skeptic (loyal to the institution), looking for reasons why not to canonize the individual.  Similarly, Leaders must embrace the concept of employing a devil’s advocate approach to identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects of technology – if not designating a devil’s advocate with the right expertise to identify assumptions, risks, and effects. But creating any devil’s advocate or “risk identification” positions is only useful if their input is seriously considered.

Embrace the Suck.  Lastly, if we are serious in identifying the 2nd/3rd order and evil effects, NIKE - 844368-443 - Hyperdunk 2016 TB - Men's Shoes - Carolina Blue - Size 10.5Nike Air Jordan I 1 Mid Blk/Court Purple-Game Royal-Flash Lime 633206-040 SZ 10to include identifying new dependencies, ethical issues, or other issues which challenge the adaption or development of a new technology or policy – then we must be honest, resilient, and tough. There will be setbacks, delays, and frustration.

FINAL THOUGHT

Technology holds the power to improve and change our personal and professional lives.  For the military, technology changes the ways wars are fought (i.e., the character of war), but it may also change the nature of war by potentially reducing the “human dimension” in war.  If robotics, AI, and other technological developments eliminate “danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction,”17 is war easier to wage?  Will technology increase its potential frequency?  Will technology create a further separation between the military and the population by decreasing the number of personnel needed? These may be some of the 2nd/3rd order and “evil” effects we need to consider.

If you enjoyed this post, please see Dr. Marsella’s previous post “Second/Third Order, and Evil Effects” – The Dark Side of Technology (Mens Nike AIR FORCE 1 ULTRA FLYKNIT MID Shoes -Reg $175 -817420 002 -Sz 9.5)

… as well as the following posts:New Jordan Ol' School III US Size 14 Black / Silver / Charcoal 375512 002SZ.8.5 Nike Free Trainer 5.0 V6 AMP 723939-481 "Florida Gators" RoyalBlue/Orange

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[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish today’s post by guest blogger LTCOL Greg Colton, Australian Army, addressing the intellectual component of military power.  In our current drive to modernize the U.S. Army into a Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-Capable Force by 2028 and set the conditions for fielding an MDO-Ready Force in 2035, we must not forget the lessons learned from our last major transformation in the 1980s. Mens Jordan Trainer 2 Flyknit BASKETBALL 921210-110 White/Black OREO New Size 10Nike MENS SF Air Force 1 Dusty Peach/Dusty Peach (864024 204) - SIZE 9 - USED The tactical and operational excellence that enabled us to completely rout Iraqi ground forces in 100 hours was not only the result of effective doctrine and the acquisition of the “Big 5” weapon systems, but also due to the development of our Combat Training Centers (CTCs) and Leader Development platforms like the Non-Commissioned Officer Education System and the School of Advanced Military Studies. Read on to learn how one of our key allies is approaching their Army’s Professional Military Education.]

LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army

We must push ourselves to think in creative and unconstrained ways to ensure our warfighting philosophy is appropriate and informs our future capabilities” — LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army, in Accelerated Warfare

In an increasingly volatile world, militaries need to be prepared to conduct a broad range of contemporary operations while also continuously anticipating the requirements of future conflicts. As the Australian Chief of Army Nike Kobe 11 FTB Black 869459 001 (Pin Only), “Preparedness is dynamic. It requires us to be ready now, while concurrently becoming future ready.” Key to this is the development of the NIKE LEBRON XIV LOW DUNKMAN BASKETBALL SHOE MEN SIZE 11, both of individuals and of the Army as an organisation, so that the Army is able to adapt to changes in circumstances quickly enough to win future conflicts.

Yet, as the Nike Air Max 1 Ultra Moire ~ 705297 400 ~ Size 12 points out, “military institutions recognize the need for leaders who can adapt, but struggle with exactly how to teach or train them to do so.” Within the Australian Army, Professional Military Education (PME) is an important component of a wider approach that blends training, education, and experience to develop a workforce able to cope with the demands of war in an ever-changing environment.

The Army’s approach to PME

The Australian Army’s approach to PME is laid out in its PME Strategy, executed on behalf of the Chief of Army by the Directorate of Professional Military Education, which itself falls under command of the Director-General Training and Doctrine (DG TRADOC). The Directorate uses two broad approaches to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power. First, using the principle of connectivism it seeks to connect those who can impart specialist knowledge to the workforce. Secondly, it seeks to develop organisational adaptability through promoting a contest of ideas. It delivers these approaches through a number of different mechanisms which allows content to be tailored to the target audience. These mechanisms include its online portal, Nike Air Max 97 Premium Light Bone UK9 Mens Trainers Sneakers, unit PME packages, webinars, and conferences.

Connectivism

Trialing a UGV during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2019 with the U.S. / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; CPL Tristan Kennedy, Photographer

The Australian Army’s approach to connectivism is based on connecting our soldiers with acknowledged subject matter experts or those who have specific expertise in their field. A good example of the former is TX Hammes who gave a CoveTalk on the development of artificial intelligence in unmanned platforms, while an example of the latter is this article by a military workshop manager on improving the efficiency of his workshop’s layout and processes. Regardless of the source, connectivism enables the Army to link both experts and expertise with the wider workforce to develop the intellectual component of fighting power within our individual soldiers and officers. In doing so, it promotes the dissemination of best practice across the force.

Australian Army soldiers during Exercise Night Naip 2014 with the Papua New Guinea Defence Force / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; Leading Seaman Justin Brown, Photographer

However, this approach only provides half of the solution. For argument’s sake, let’s take as a given that warfare is an ever-evolving phenomenon. As such,Nike SF AF1 Special Field Air Force 1 Hi Midnight Navy Gum Men Shoes 864024-4002015 Nike Air Max Flyknit Multicolor Eu 43 US 9.5 Rainbow Multi racer best practice in and of itself cannot be enough, as the very term indicates the pre-determination of an optimal solution derived within a static set of variables. The uniqueness of each theatre, campaign, battlefield, or individual soldier’s field of fire will mean that the variables on which best practice has been developed will never exactly replicate. Consequently, tactical solutions to complex problems will rarely (if ever) be found using a cookie cutter Nike Air Max 95 Essential Trainer 749766-407 UK5.5/EU38.5/US6NIKE AIR MAX 95 NS GPX - DUST GREY/VOLT/WHITE - AJ7183 001 -template. Instead, we need an Army that is institutionally flexible enough to recognise and incorporate emerging practice to solve unique problem sets. In other words, if best practice provides the theoretical foundations required to understand the tactical problem, emerging practice provides the intellectual adaptability to actually solve it.

A contest of ideas

This leads us to the second approach we use to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power: Nike SFB 6"" Leather 862507-001 Lifestyle Sneakers Casual ShoesNike Air Max Tavas Essential Mens Adults Running Sports Shoes Trainers - White promoting a contest of ideas.  Fostering a culture of contesting ideas has two benefits. Firstly, it gives our people the confidence to analyse the unique problem set they are faced with and recommend bespoke solutions to a hierarchy that is often one or two steps removed from the ground truth. Secondly, and just as importantly, it inculcates an organisational culture within the Army that is willing to recognise, and accept, emerging practice (i.e., the recommendations from those trying to solve the current problem) rather than always insisting on best practice (i.e., what we have always done in similar circumstances). This is essential if we are to win future wars.Nike Metcon Repper DSX Tough Red Black Men CrossFit Training Trainers 898048-601Nike Air Max Motion LW Lightweight Mens Running Shoes Trainers Black/White Mesh

Australian Army Boxer 8×8 Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle (CRV) with 30mm automatic cannon / Source:  Multiple Australian media sites

A good example of how the Australian Army promotes a contest of ideas is The Cove’s recent NIKE AIR JORDAN 1 RETRO HIGH 2013 ALL STAR COLLECTION JORKER 136065-02 US 9.5, in which readers were invited to submit a ‘script’ of no more than 100 words on what they thought the Army of 2030 should look like. Run over the period of a calendar month, it generated 48 entries from a broad range of authors,Nike Air Max BW Ultra SE men lifestyle sneakers NEW ocean fog 844967-402Nike Air Max 95 Ultra SE Mens Trainers AO9082 403 Special Edition New from front-line practitioners to life-long academics. Collectively, these scripts were viewed over 93,000 times in 31 days and were the genesis for numerous comments on our website, within units and messes across the country, and on social media. At the end of the competition,NIKE AIR JORDAN WESTBROOK 0.2 - BLACK/CAMO - 854563 003 -Nike Air Max LD ZERO, Bone Platinum , 848624-008 US 11 the entries and online discussion were captured and passed on to the Australian Army’s Directorate of Future Land Warfare to inform its work.

This ‘crowd sourcing’ of ideas doesn’t just support the work of those tasked with thinking about the future structures and capabilities of the Army. It also encourages the Army’s people to think about the future of warfare, encourages debate on how the organisation can best meet the challenges of the future, and gives our people the confidence to contribute to that debate.

A complementary approach

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Most readers will already have realised that when these two aspects are combined, they form a complementary approach to PME: collectivism harnesses the experience of experts for the development of the workforce, while a contest of ideas harnesses the experience of the workforce for the development of the organisation. If the Army is to be truly adaptive, one cannot exist without the other. An organisation which always insists on best practice, rather than emerging practice,Nike Air Max Command, Sneaker, LTD, Classic, Sportschuhe, 694862-10 Neu Gr 47 is risking ruin through imposing dogmatic solutions to complex problems, while an army that automatically reacts to instantaneous suggestions from the workforce, ungrounded in theoretical understanding, risks repeating the mistakes of the past.

Thus, contributions need to be sought from a broad range of viewpoints if the Army is to be ready for future conflict. As Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank is at NIKE AIR JORDAN 1 BRED SNAKESKIN NOUVEAU Taille 12 46 atc23:  “Nobody has a monopoly on good ideas.” This is particularly important to remember within hierarchical organisations such as the military.NIKE LUNAR FORCE 1 DUCKBOOT LOW ALE BROWN SIZE US 12 AA1125 200 LF1Men's Nike Air Zoom Mariah Flyknit Racer Trainers US 12 918264-200 It can be all too easy for generals, staff officers, or senior public servants to fall into the trap of believing that experience alone is the foundation of hard-earned knowledge, and that new ideas from juniors that challenge doctrine, the status quo, or the strategic narrative are unnecessarily subversive.

Soldiers from the 7th Combat Signal Regiment (7 CSR) / Source:  MENS NIKE AIR MAX 90 ULTRA 2.0 LEATHER SIZE UK/9 EUR/44 (924447-001)Nike AF1 Ultra Flyknit Mid White Trainers Size 9 **BNIB & UNUSED RRP **

Yet, when the next war comes it will not be the desk officers or policy experts that do the fighting, or the dying, in foreign fields. It is the young military practitioner who, regardless of rank, will find themselves trying to solve a unique problem set in the most testing of circumstances. In the words of Nassim Taleb, it is they who have ‘Nike Flyknit Trainer| Size 7 UK| 8 USA| | AH8396-006.’ As such, we owe that young soldier or officer not only the very best foundational professional military education we can give them, but also an organisation willing and able to adapt to bespoke solutions based on ground truth. As an Army, we must set the conditions such that our people challenging the status quo and contesting ideas is our organisation’s comfort zone.

This requires a complementary approach to PME, developed and delivered now, so that we may enhance the intellectual component of fighting power in time for the Army to fight, and win, the next war. It is an approach that the team at The Cove is dedicated to delivering for the Australian Army.

If you enjoyed this post, please read: Nike Air Force 1 Trainers Size UK9 Dark Blue Nike iDNIKE LUNAR FORCE 1 DUCKBOOT '17 SIZE US 10 AF1 LF1.