- tamika-32 Fashion Ankle Buckle Party Prom Casual Winter Women Boots Black 7-
- LAREDO Brown Leather Western Boots Women's Size 7.5 M
- Man/Woman womens ankle Marten boots size 7 Best-selling worldwide High quality and economy Outstanding style
- Naturalizer Womens CASSINI Round Toe Ankle Fashion, Black LEATHER, Size 11.0
- Free People Jeffrey Campbell Prance Boot Fringe Black Suede Ankle Zip Bootie 8
- Man's/Woman's Skechers Men's Apogee Casual Oxford Various goods Beautiful appearance General product
- FINN COMFORT-UNISEX- 9 - 9 1/2 US MENS (42 EU ) SENSITIVE, VASSA S-M-18 NEW
- Cycleur De Luxe Mens Shoes Bicycling Cycling Crash Size 13 NEW
- Handmade Dark-Brown Leather Slippa Ring Toe Post T-Bar Sandals Mens Tomboy Women
- Jeffrey Campbell Tiles Perforated slip-on sneaker-style shoes taupe suede NEW!
- Under Armour Kick Sprint Men's 12 Racing Spikes Track Running Shoe Vapor Green
- CONVERSE NAVY SNEAKERS SEA STAR LS OX MEN SIZE 12 146481C
- Clarks Originals Beeswax Brown Desert Trex Crepe Soles Shoes Men’s US 11.5 M
- Hi Tec Borah Peak Waterproof Shoes Leather Mens Hiking Shoes Low Heel
- Guide Gear Black Leather Motorcycle Engineer Boots Men's Size 12M VGUC
- New Men's Interceptor Kentin Black Boot Size 10.5
- Bates U.S. Army Military Desert Combat Boots Size 11.5
- Texas Men's Cowboy Western Boots Brown & Bone Faux Snake Vintage US Made 9 EE 2e
- NEW COLE HAAN BLACK LISBON GRAND VENETIAN II LEATHER DRIVER SHOES SIZE 7.5
- ALBERTO GUARDIANI MAN SNEAKER SHOES CASUAL FREE TIME SUEDE CODE SU66351C
- Lanvin Taupe Suede Jewel Embellished Tassel Ballerina Ballet Flats Size EU 36 (Approx. US 6) Regular (M, B)
- Christian Louboutin Beige Silver Clou Noeud Leather Spike Sling Platform High Heel Red Women Lady Italy Pumps Size US 9.5 Regular (M, B)
- Christian Louboutin White Nosy 100 Latte Pvc Transparent T Strap Ankle Patent Leather Heel Pumps Size EU 40 (Approx. US 10) Regular (M, B)
- Puma deportiva Calzado de Mujer Zapatillas con cordones 2545 Beige Zapatos piel
- NIKE Roshe Tiempo VI QS Leather Men's Size 12 Shoes Black 853535 002 NEW In Box!
- NIKE Men's Stefan Janoski Max Ankle-High Running Shoe
- Women’s Adidas Boost Sneaker NMD_R1 STLT Primeknit Solar Pink CQ2386 Size 7.5
- Nike Women's Wmns Nikelab Air Max 1 One Royal Black White 847672-001 tan patta
- Faux leather high heel Boots Womens platform Victorian Vintage Extreme plus Size
- Sanuk Gawl Bootah Grey Women's Shoes Slip- On Casual Slippers 1018096 Ankle Boot
- NIKE FREE FLYKNIT MOTION RUN 2017 SZ 12.5 BLACK DARK GREY ANTHRACITE 880845 003
- Nike Kobe IX EM Basketball Shoes, Size 10.5 (2013)--Purple/Silver-Magnesium
- Ellie Shoes Women's 609-Cais Boot, Black, 8 B US
- Frye Lena Zip High gray suede leather sneakers booties ankle boots size 6M NWOB
- Womens size 7M Clarks burgundy leather reptile print loafers shoes 7 M stacked h
- NEW Rieker Brown leather loafer slip on $99 women 4.5 oxford
- Skechers Street Women's Women's Side Street-Core-Set Sneaker
- NIB Eileen Fisher Barley Tour Nubuck Espadrilles Flat Sz 7M $
- French Sole Yacht Flats-Women's sz 8.5 Blue
- $425 Max Mara Women's Shoes Flats Size 9 (39.5) Coral Soft Leather NEW
- NIKE Womens Air Huarache Run PRM TXT Metallic Mahogany White AA0523-202 Size 6.5
- NIKE Womens Nike Revolution 4 908999-008 BLACK Size 9
- Adidas Originals Women's Stan Smith CF Sneakers Size 5.5 us BY2974
- New Miu Miu White Color sneakers Size 37 MSRP $795
- Sofft Women's Altessa Black Goat Antique Business Shoes
- Gentlemen/Ladies Cole Haan Air Granada 14 Complete specification range First grade in its class buy online
- Mr/Ms Allen Edmonds Woodlore- Pick SZ/Color. Guarantee quality and quantity In short supply Popular recommendation
- Mephisto Air Jet Oxford Shoes Sz 9.5 Brown Leather Mens 2E1
- Alpine Swiss Kilian Mesh Fashion Sneakers Lightweight Shoes Green 11 New
- PUMA NYTER BMW MOTORSPORT SHOES MENS SIZE 12 MEDIEVAL BLUE RIBBON RED NIB NEW
- Sbicca Vintage Collection Women's Black Leather Knee High Boot 6M
- ii HARLEY DAVIDSON BLACK LEATHER MOTORCYCLE HARNESS ANKLE BOOTS WOMENS 6 M
- Bella Vita Women's Deryn Boot, Chestnut Suede/Black Gore, 5 M US
- Dan Post Genuine Lizard Women's Cowboy Boots 8.5M
- KHRIO ANKLE BOOTS SIZE 39 EU/8.5M GRAY SUEDE NIOB $124
- Vans Classic Slip-On (HEMP) Irie Incense / VN-0LYF1ZG /rare vegan RASTA / 9.0 US
- MENS ADIDAS SPEEDEX 16.1 MEN'S BOXING RUNNING/SNEAKERS/TRAINING SHOES
- NWT Men's RAFTERS Tamarindo Embossed Green Leather Flip Flop Sandal Size 8 M
- TEVA Nylon Sandal Blue Shoe Mens Size 9
- Tods Womens Shoes Size 5 Black Solid Leather Slip On Flat Loafers Casual
- Nike Mercurial Victory Vi Fg Cleats Soccer Men Shoes 10
- MERRELL Intercept Outdoor Hiking Trekking Athletic Trainers Shoes Mens All Size
- Double H Mens Brown Leather Cowboy Boots Sz 8.5 D Buckaroos DISTRESSED
- Nocona MDUH12 Mens University of Houston Brown Cowhide Branded College Boots
- ARIAT Mens Cowboy Boot Western Riding Tan Brown Nubuck Leather Size 9.5D Comfort
- Giorgio Brutini Mens 24927 Thornton Leather Ankle Dress Boot Brown/Tan Sz 7.5M
- Stetson Cowboy Boots Men's 7 Leather Square Toe Western Purple Brown Handmade
- Mens Fashion Distressed Cowboy/Worker Boot Style A3031 to 12 (R21B)
- Sperry Top-Sider Men's Gold Cup Kennebunk ASV Venetian Brown Loafer Sz 12 M $170
- Versace Black Medusa Gold Chain Strap Heeled Sandals Size US 7 Regular (M, B)
- Manolo Blahnik Royal Blue Hangisi Satin Flats Size US 9 Regular (M, B)
- Brunello Cucinelli Brown Leather Combat Boots/Booties Size EU 38 (Approx. US 8) Regular (M, B)
- (875844-002) MEN'S NIKE AIR MAX 1 PREMIUM ANTHRACITE/ELEMENTAL GOLD Sz 9
- NIKE MENS LUNARGLIDE 8 RUNNING SHOES #AA8676-001
- Adidas Ultra Boost X Womens BY1674 Mystery Ruby Primeknit Running Shoes Size 9.5
- Women Nike Air Zoom Pegasus 35 Running Shoes Black/Grey/White 942855 002 SIZE 8
- NORTY Women's Hurricane Wellie - 14 Solids and Prints - Glossy & Matte...
- Women Strappy Tassels Wedge Heel Mid-calf Combat Motorcycle Moccasin Boots Shoes
- Dan Post DP67611 Armstrong Slip On Soft Moc Toe Non Slip Square Toe Work Shoes
- NEW Adidas Originals Run9Tis Mens Adults Trainers Sport Shoes - Black White Blue
- Red/Black Nike 2017 Hyperdunk Low Basketball Shoe US Mens 11.5
- Nike Uomo Scarpe per Tempo Libero Air Max Asse Nero Bianco
- Men's/Women's CLARKS Women's Delana Fairlee Ankle Bootie quality Online Outstanding style
- Joie Women's Saima Fashion Boot, Black, 41 M US
- Sage Fire and Turquoise Lightweight Slip-on Canvas Women's Casual Flats Shoes
- Life Stride Women's Daisie Flat
- Man/Woman J.Crew Cece Studded Ballet Flats Adequate supply and timely delivery high quality classic style
- Men's/Women's Ivanka Trump Women's Liah dress Pump Practical and economical a good reputation in the world high quality product
- ZARA SS17 NEW BALLET BLACK STUDIO ELASTIC BALLERINAS SHOES REF.1363/201 SOLD OUT
- Tory Burch 46262 Lowell 2 Flat Slide Veg Nappa (Black, 7.5)
- Adidas NMD R2 PK Primeknit W Womens Wonder Pink Core Black BY9521 Boost Original
- Fila DIRECTION-W Womens Direction-W Running Shoe- Choose SZ/Color.
- Giacca Giubbotto Uomo Granata Fred Perry Jacket Men Bordeaux
- Born Womens Black Comfort Work Loafer Clog Slip On Shoes Size 8.5
- Mephisto Women's Hannel Old Pink Nubuck Beach Shoes
- Frye Norfolk Deck Mens 3480119-CMN Cement Leather Casual Boat Shoes Size 8.5
- SANUK CHIBA Sidewalk Surfer Gray Casual Slip On Shoes Mens SIZE • US 9
- Sperry Top Sider Mens Brown Nubuck Leather Boat Deck Casual Shoes 9.5 M #F06
- New Mens Casual Leather Desert Military High Top Suede Ankle Boots Chelsea Boots
- Mens Velvet Bowtie Dress Weddig Slip On Club Party Vogue Leisure Loafers Shoes
- Easy Street Jem Ankle Booties 628, Pewter, 10 W US
- LAMO Dark Brown Suede Ankle Strap Faux Fur Cresson Pull on Boots NEW
- Skechers Women's Double Up Sunsets Slip On Sneaker,Multi,US 8 M
- Bottes Cuissardes Cuir Sexy Plateforme Doré, Talon Aiguille 15.5CM! du 34 au 48!
- Schutz Lupe Prata Silver Low Block Heel Metallic Retro Chik Round Toe Ankle Boot
[Editor’s Note: In Part I of this series, Dr. Nick Marsella addressed the duty we have to examine our assumptions about emergent warfighting technologies / capabilities and their associated implications to identify potential second / third order and “evil” effects. Miss Tina Taupe Gray Suede & Snake 2 in 1 BOOTS NEWHokkaido-6 Pointed Toe Over Knee Thigh High Heel Stretch Elastic Boot Red In today’s post, he prescribes five actions we can embrace both individually and as organizations to avoid confirmation bias and falling into cognitive thinking traps when confronting the ramifications of emergent technologies — Enjoy!]
In part I of my blog post, I advised those advocating for the development and/or fielding of technology to be mindful of the second/third order and possible “evil” effects. I defined “evil” as an unexpected and profound negative implication(s) of the adoption/adaption of a technology and related policy. I also recommended heeding the admonition of Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, to take responsibility for our technological creations and have the courage to think things through their potential implications – both for the good and the bad.
But even if we as individuals are willing to challenge our assumptions and think broadly and imaginatively, we can still come up short. Why? The answer is due in part to the challenges of prediction and the fact we are human with both great cognitive abilities, but also weaknesses.
First, common sense and many theorists remind us that the future is unknowable.424 Fifth Lord & Taylor Brown Suede Zip Up High Block Heel Booties Size 9New Women Wild Diva Starcy-93 Suede Braided Fringe Zip Moccasin Bootie SizeThe futurist Arthur C. Clark noted in 1962, “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” Within this fixed condition of unknowing, the U.S. Departments of Defense and the Army must make choices to determine:
– what capabilities we desire and its related technology;
– where to invest in research and development; and
As Michael E. Raynor pointed out in his book, Men/Women Doc Martens size 8 Fine processing discount TRUE, making choices and developing strategies, which include adopting new technology, where the future is unknowable and “deeply unpredictable” either produces monumental successes or monumental failures.tamika-32 Fashion Ankle Buckle Party Prom Casual Winter Women Boots Black 5-OL Womens Ladys Casual Round Toe Work Ankle Shoes Tassel Booties Block Heels New For a company this can spell financial ruin, while for the Army, it can spell disaster and the loss of Soldiers’ lives and national treasure. Yet, we must also choose a “way ahead” – often by considering “boundaries” – in a sense the left and right limits – of potential implications.
Second, our ability to predict when technology will become available is often in error nor can we accurately determine its implications. For example, in a New York Times editorial on December 8, 1903, it noted: “A man carrying airplane will eventually be built, Forever 21 Wine Faux Suede Ankle Boots Women's Size / US 8Zigi Soho Nydia gray floral textile ankle boots sz 8 block heelbut only if mathematicians and engineers work steadily for the next ten million years.”5 The Wright Brothers first flight took place the following week, but it took decades for commercial and military aviation to evolve.
Each of the services has faced force modernization challenges due to the adoption of technologies that weren’t mature enough; whose capabilities were over-promised; or did not support operations in the envisioned Operational Environment. For the U.S. Army, Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the most obvious and recent example of this challenge – costing billions of dollars and, just as importantly, lost time and confidence.NEW WOMENS LADIES CHELSEA PLATFORM STILETTO HIGH HEEL ZIP ANKLE SHOE BOOTS SIZELadies Joules Rain Boots Size US 7 Wellyprint London England
Third, in terms of future technology, predictions vary widely. For example, predictions by MIT’s Rodney Brooks and futurist/inventor Ray Kurzweil vary widely to the question – “What year do you think human-level Artificial Intelligence [AI, i.e., a true thinking machine] might be achieved with a 50% probability?” Kurzweil predicts AI (as defined) will be available in 2029, while Brooks is a bit more conservative – the year 2200 – a difference of over 170 years.$110 NEW Juicy Couture Harper Royal Magenta Rubber Rain Boots US 4/5 (M)NEW Womens MIA Mushroom Tan Luce Faux Leather Bootie Ankle Boots Size 8
While one can understand the difficulty of predicting when “general AI” will be available, other technologies offer similar difficulties. The vision of the “self-driving” autonomous vehicle was first written about and experimented with in the 1920s, yet technological limitations, legal concerns, customer fears, and other barriers make implementing this capability challenging.
Lastly, as Rodney Brooks has highlighted, WOMENS LIZ CLAIBORNE PAIGE SUEDE BOOTS MULTIPLE COLORS&SIZES NEW IN BOX MSRP$89 maintains:
“we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”VC Signature Grey Suede Almond Toe Platform Ankle Boot Size 8.5
SECOND, THIRD ORDER AND EVIL EFFECTS
– intentionally focus on the positive effects of adopting a technology;
– ignore the experts and those who identify the potential downside of technology; and
– fail to think thorough the short, long, and potentially dangerous effects or dependencies – imaginatively.
We do this because we are human, and more often because we fall into the confirmation bias or other cognitive thinking traps that might affect our program or pet technology. As noted by RAND in Truth Decay:Georgia Giant G3060 Ladies Black Leather Romeo Casual Work Shoes 7.5M (B52)Women's Hy-Test Low Top Nubuck Safety Shoes By Wolverine Sz 7
“Cognitive biases and the ways in which human beings process information and make decisions cause people to look for information, opinion, and analyses that confirm preexisting beliefs, to weigh experience more heavily than data and facts, and then to rely on mental shortcuts and the beliefs of those in the same social networks when forming opinions and making decisions.”9
Yet, the warning signs or signals for many unanticipated effects can be found simply by conducting a literature review of government, think tank, academic, and popular reports (to perhaps include science fiction). This may deter some, given the sheer volume of literature is often overwhelming, but contained within these reports are many of the challenges associated with future technology, such as: the potential for deep fakes, loss of privacy, hacking,tamika-32 Fashion Ankle Buckle Party Prom Casual Winter Women Boots Black 6.5-Fergie Women's Scarlet Slouch Boot, Black, Size 8.0 accidents, deception, and loss of industries/jobs.
At the national level, both the current and previous administrations published reports on AI, as has the Department of Defense – some more balanced in addressing of issues of fairness, safety, governance, and ethics.10
For example, using photo recognition to help law enforcement and others seems like a great idea, yet its use is increasingly being questioned. This past May, San Francisco became the first city to ban its use, and others may follow suit.11 While some question this decision to ban vice impose a moratorium until the technology produces less errors, the question remains – did the developers and policy makers consider if there would be push back to its introduction given its current performance?SELF E STEEM BROWN BOOTS WOMEN'S SIZE 9 1/2RETAIL $69 Rampage Brown Eleanor Mid Heel Dress Boots Size 7M What sources did they consult?
Another challenge is language. You’ve seen the commercials – “there is much we can do with AI” – in farming, business, and even beer making. While “AI” is a clever tag line, it may invoke unnecessary fear and misunderstanding. For example, I believe for most people equate “robotics” and “AI” with the “Terminator” franchise, raising the fear of uncontrolled autonomous military force overwhelming humanity. Even worse – under the moniker of “AI,” we will buy into “snake-oil” propositions.
We are at least decades away from “general AI” where a “system exhibits apparently intelligence behavior at least as advanced as a person” across the “full range of cognitive tasks,” but we continue to flaunt the use of “AI” without elaboration.Suede Faux Fur Dark Chocolate Brown Pull On Women’s Winter Flat Boots Size 9/10Nine West Marley Slouch Tassel Boots - Brown Suede Size US 7.5
SOME ACTIONS TO TAKE
Embrace a learning organization. Popularized by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990), a learning organization is a place “where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together.”Brinley Co Women's Thora Ankle Boot, Black, Size 7.5 22kh While some question whether we can truly make a learning organization, Senge’s thinking may help solve our problem of identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects.
First, we must embrace new and expansive patterns of thinking. Force developers use the acronym – “DOTMPLF-P” as shorthand for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities, and Policy implications – yet other factors might be as important.
For example, trust in automated or robotics systems must be instilled and measured. In one poll, 73% of respondents noted they would be afraid of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle – up 10% points from the previous year.14 What if we develop a military autonomous vehicle or a leader-follower system and one or more of our host nation allies prohibits its use? What happens if an accident occurs and the host population protests, $105 NEW David Tate Denver Black Boots 5.0 D WideQupid Womens Postal-01A Closed Toe Ankle Fashion Boots, Taupe, Size 9.0arguing that the Americans don’t care for their safety?
Technologists and concept developers must move from being stove-piped in labs and single-focused to consider the broader view of technological implications across functions.
Embrace Humility. Given that we cannot predict the future and its potential consequences, developers must seek out diversified opinions, and more importantly, recognize divergent opinions.
Embrace the Data. In New York City during World War II, a small organization of some of the most brilliant minds in America worked in the office of the “Applied Mathematics Panel.” In Europe, the 8th U.S. Air Force suffered from devastating bomber losses. NEW Women's SIMPLY VERA DANNA GRAY Heel F Zipper Booties Shoes SZ 6NEW Womens TEK GEAR HAZEL MELON Ankle Slip On Boots Shoes SZ 8Leaders wondered where best to reinforce the bombers with additional armor without significantly increasing their weight to improve survivability. Reports indicated returning bombers suffered gunfire hits over the wings and fuselage, but not in the tail or cockpits, so to the casual observer it made sense to reinforce the wings and fuselage where the damage was clearly visible.
Abraham Wald, a mathematician, worked on the problem. He noted that reinforcing the spots where damage was evident in returning aircraft wasn’t necessarily the best course of action, given that hits to the cockpit and tail were probably causing aircraft (and aircrew) losses during the mission. In a series of memorandums, he developed a “method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors.” As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted more than 100 years ago, “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”Women gray fabric casual slip on shoes 8 by Mossimo free shipNew Women's Fur Lined Boots Camel Brown Wedge Shoes Winter Snow Ladies size 7.5
Additionally, we need to reinforce our practice of performing quality literature reviews to aid in our identification of these issues.
Employ Skepticism and a Devil’s Advocate Approach. In 1587, the Roman Catholic Church created the position of Promoter of the Faith – commonly referred to as the Devil’s Advocate. To insure a candidate for sainthood met the qualification of being canonized, the role of the Devil’s Advocate was to be the skeptic (loyal to the institution), looking for reasons why not to canonize the individual. Similarly, Leaders must embrace the concept of employing a devil’s advocate approach to identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects of technology – if not designating a devil’s advocate with the right expertise to identify assumptions, risks, and effects. But creating any devil’s advocate or “risk identification” positions is only useful if their input is seriously considered.
Embrace the Suck. Lastly, if we are serious in identifying the 2nd/3rd order and evil effects, New Women's Ridding Boots Pita Black Shoes Winter Snow Fur Lined Ladies size 8Silvery Clog Cowboy Boots Urban Cowgirls Sz 8to include identifying new dependencies, ethical issues, or other issues which challenge the adaption or development of a new technology or policy – then we must be honest, resilient, and tough. There will be setbacks, delays, and frustration.
Technology holds the power to improve and change our personal and professional lives. For the military, technology changes the ways wars are fought (i.e., the character of war), but it may also change the nature of war by potentially reducing the “human dimension” in war. If robotics, AI, and other technological developments eliminate “danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction,”17 is war easier to wage? Will technology increase its potential frequency? Will technology create a further separation between the military and the population by decreasing the number of personnel needed? These may be some of the 2nd/3rd order and “evil” effects we need to consider.
If you enjoyed this post, please see Dr. Marsella’s previous post “Second/Third Order, and Evil Effects” – The Dark Side of Technology (New Women's Fashion Knee High Boots Brown Shoes Winter Snow Ladies size 6)
… as well as the following posts:Louise Et Cie Women's Black Leather Ankle Boots Shoe Size 9.5 MMen/Women Seven Dials Tinsley Peep-Toe Booties, Black Adequate supply and timely delivery buy professional design
– KENNETH COLE Reaction Women's Ankle Boots Black Leather Size 7.5 M, by Dr. Nir Buras