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[Editor’s Note:  In Part I of this series, Dr. Nick Marsella addressed the duty we have to examine our assumptions about emergent warfighting technologies / capabilities and their associated implications to identify potential second / third order and “evil” effects. Mens Asics GT-II GT 2 - H40PK2323 - Red Red TrainersZapatos NIKE Hombre BIANCO/NERO AO3260-060 In today’s post, he prescribes five actions we can embrace both individually and as organizations to avoid confirmation bias and falling into cognitive thinking traps when confronting the ramifications of emergent technologies — Enjoy!]

In part I of my blog post, I advised those advocating for the development and/or fielding of technology to be mindful of the second/third order and possible “evil” effects. I defined “evil” as an unexpected and profound negative implication(s) of the adoption/adaption of a technology and related policy. I also recommended heeding the admonition of Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, to take responsibility for our technological creations and have the courage to think things through their potential implications – both for the good and the bad.

But even if we as individuals are willing to challenge our assumptions and think broadly and imaginatively, we can still come up short.  Why?  The answer is due in part to the challenges of prediction and the fact we are human with both great cognitive abilities, but also weaknesses.

THE CHALLENGES

First, common sense and many theorists remind us that the future is unknowable.Mens Nike Lunar Force 1 Fuse NRG - 573980 101 - White Game Blue TrainersNike 916774-300 Md Runner 2 EnG Mesh Sneaker grün 180263The futurist Arthur C. Clark noted in 1962, “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” Within this fixed condition of unknowing, the U.S. Departments of Defense and the Army must make choices to determine:

– what capabilities we desire and its related technology;

– where to invest in research and development; and

– what to purchase and field.NIKE FLYKNIT ONE+ 554887-300 elctrc grn/blck-wlf gry-mdnght Size 9.5Nike AIR ZOOM PEGASUS 92 - 844652-103

Source: Penguin Random House

As Michael E. Raynor pointed out in his book, NIKE UOMO SCARPE CALCETTO MERCURIAL VORTEX TF GIALLO-ARANCIO NUOVO SCONTO 50%, making choices and developing strategies, which include adopting new technology, where the future is unknowable and “deeply unpredictable” either produces monumental successes or monumental failures.Nike roshe Eine Wildleder Größe 40,5 (7,5US)Nike SB Check Solar 843895400 navy blue halfshoes For a company this can spell financial ruin, while for the Army, it can spell disaster and the loss of Soldiers’ lives and national treasure.  Yet, we must also choose a “way ahead” – often by considering “boundaries” – in a sense the left and right limits – of potential implications.

Second, our ability to predict when technology will become available is often in error nor can we accurately determine its implications. For example, in a New York Times editorial on December 8, 1903, it noted:  “A man carrying airplane will eventually be built, NIKE AIR MAX 1 ANNIVERSARY WHITE AQUA NEUTRAL GREY BLACK 908375 105 SIZE 8 NEWMEN'S NIKE SF AIR FORCE 1 CLUB GOLD-CLUB GOLD-BLACK 864024-700 NEW 2018but only if mathematicians and engineers work steadily for the next ten million years.”5  The Wright Brothers first flight took place the following week, but it took decades for commercial and military aviation to evolve.

The stillborn Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the U.S. Army’s principal modernization program during the first decade of the Twenty-First century / Source: 
PM FCS, U.S. Army

Each of the services has faced force modernization challenges due to the adoption of technologies that weren’t mature enough; whose capabilities were over-promised; or did not support operations in the envisioned Operational Environment.  For the U.S. Army, Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the most obvious and recent example of this challenge – costing billions of dollars and, just as importantly, lost time and confidence.Nike LeBron Soldier XI SFG Wheat Gold Basketball Shoe 897646 700 Sz 8 -11NIKE AIR FREE 5.0 FLASH Misura 38 (7US)

Third, in terms of future technology, predictions vary widely. For example, predictions by MIT’s Rodney Brooks and futurist/inventor Ray Kurzweil vary widely to the question – “What year do you think human-level Artificial Intelligence [AI, i.e., a true thinking machine] might be achieved with a 50% probability?” Kurzweil predicts AI (as defined) will be available in 2029, while Brooks is a bit more conservative – the year 2200 – a difference of over 170 years.Nike Air Huarache White/Ultramarine-Solar Red Mens Size 9-12- 318429 112NEW MENS NIKE JORDAN MELO M8 BASKETBALL SHOE SIZE 1O.5 GYM RED/BLACK/WHITE

While one can understand the difficulty of predicting when “general AI” will be available, other technologies offer similar difficulties. The vision of the “self-driving” autonomous vehicle was first written about and experimented with in the 1920s, yet technological limitations, legal concerns, customer fears, and other barriers make implementing this capability challenging.

Gartner Hype Cycle / Source: Nicole Saraco Loddo, Gartner

Lastly, as Rodney Brooks has highlighted, Men's Nike Flyknit Racer Black Hyper Orange Vivid Purple Size 11 526628-008 maintains:

we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”NEW Nike Roshe One Print Premium Loyal Blue Floral 833620-410 Msrp

SECOND, THIRD ORDER AND EVIL EFFECTS

I contend that we either:NIKE Men's Flex 2016 RN Running ShoeNike Air Oscillate Mens Style : 140370

intentionally focus on the positive effects of adopting a technology;

ignore the experts and those who identify the potential downside of technology; and

fail to think thorough the short, long, and potentially dangerous effects or dependencies – imaginatively.

We do this because we are human, and more often because we fall into the confirmation bias or other cognitive thinking traps that might affect our program or pet technology. As noted by RAND in Truth Decay:Nike Air Max 1 Ultra Moire Mens Running Trainers 705297 013 Sneakers CLEARANCENike Air Jordan J23 Mens Basketball Trainers 854557 700 Sneakers Shoes

Source: Pixabay

Cognitive biases and the ways in which human beings process information and make decisions cause people to look for information, opinion, and analyses that confirm preexisting beliefs, to weigh experience more heavily than data and facts, and then to rely on mental shortcuts and the beliefs of those in the same social networks when forming opinions and making decisions.”9

Yet, the warning signs or signals for many unanticipated effects can be found simply by conducting a literature review of government, think tank, academic, and popular reports (to perhaps include science fiction). This may deter some, given the sheer volume of literature is often overwhelming, but contained within these reports are many of the challenges associated with future technology, such as:  the potential for deep fakes, loss of privacy, hacking,Nike Air Max Tavas Sneaker Sportschuh Turnschuh TextilNike Flystepper 2K3 PRM Mens Hi Top Trainers 677473 Sneakers Shoes 400 accidents, deception, and loss of industries/jobs.

At the national level, both the current and previous administrations published reports on AI, as has the Department of Defense – some more balanced in addressing of issues of fairness, safety, governance, and ethics.10

Source: PixabayNike Air Max Sequent Sneaker Sportschuh Laufschuh Turnschuh TextilNike Presto Fly Mens Running Trainers 908019 Sneakers Shoes 013

For example, using photo recognition to help law enforcement and others seems like a great idea, yet its use is increasingly being questioned. This past May, San Francisco became the first city to ban its use, and others may follow suit.11  While some question this decision to ban vice impose a moratorium until the technology produces less errors, the question remains – did the developers and policy makers consider if there would be push back to its introduction given its current performance?Nike Air Jordan 1 Flight 4 Hi Top Basketball Trainers 820135 011 Sneakers Shoes2007 Nike Air Jordan 11 XI Retro Low Silver Zest Sz 9.5 306008-072 Cool Grey IV What sources did they consult?

Another challenge is language. You’ve seen the commercials – “there is much we can do with AI” – in farming, business, and even beer making.  While “AI” is a clever tag line, it may invoke unnecessary fear and misunderstanding.  For example, I believe for most people equate “robotics” and “AI” with the “Terminator” franchise, raising the fear of uncontrolled autonomous military force overwhelming humanity.  Even worse – under the moniker of “AI,” we will buy into “snake-oil” propositions.

We are at least decades away from “general AI” where a “system exhibits apparently intelligence behavior at least as advanced as a person” across the “full range of cognitive tasks,” but we continue to flaunt the use of “AI” without elaboration.2011 Nike Air Jordan Retro 3 III White Cement Size 9.New Nike Zoom All Out Flyknit OC Olympic Collection Mens Size 10.5 | 845716-999

SOME ACTIONS TO TAKE

Embrace a learning organization. Popularized by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990), a learning organization is a place “where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together.”2007 Nike Air Force 1 Supreme Max Air '07 So Cal Edition Size 12 316666 111 While some question whether we can truly make a learning organization, Senge’s thinking may help solve our problem of identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects.

First, we must embrace new and expansive patterns of thinking.  Force developers use the acronym – “DOTMPLF-P” as shorthand for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities, and Policy implications – yet other factors might be as important.

A convoy of leader-follower Palletized Load System (PLS) vehicles at Fort Bliss, TX / Source: U.S. Army photo by Jerome Aliotta317918-143 Mens Nike Air Max Turbulence Size 12Nike Air Jordan Ol School Black/White-Cool Grey 317223-013 Men's SZ 13

For example, trust in automated or robotics systems must be instilled and measured.  In one poll, 73% of respondents noted they would be afraid of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle – up 10% points from the previous year.14  What if we develop a military autonomous vehicle or a leader-follower system and one or more of our host nation allies prohibits its use? What happens if an accident occurs and the host population protests, Nike Hyperdunk 2017 Low Limited Black/White Basketball Shoes Sz 13Nike 654262 Mens Air Jordan Flight Mid Top Basketball Athletic Shoes Sneakersarguing that the Americans don’t care for their safety?

Technologists and concept developers must move from being stove-piped in labs and single-focused to consider the broader view of technological implications across functions.

Embrace Humility. Given that we cannot predict the future and its potential consequences, developers must seek out diversified opinions, and more importantly, recognize divergent opinions.

U.S. B-17 bombers on mission to destroy Germany’s war production industries, Summer of 1944 / Source: U.S. Air Force photo

Embrace the Data.  In New York City during World War II, a small organization of some of the most brilliant minds in America worked in the office of the “Applied Mathematics Panel.”  In Europe, the 8th U.S. Air Force suffered from devastating bomber losses.  Nike Air Jordan Trunner LX High Black/Black Men's AA1347-010 SZ 9Nike Cortez Basic Nylon Mens 819720-411 Obsidian White Running Shoes Size 10Leaders wondered where best to reinforce the bombers with additional armor without significantly increasing their weight to improve survivability. Reports indicated returning bombers suffered gunfire hits over the wings and fuselage, but not in the tail or cockpits, so to the casual observer it made sense to reinforce the wings and fuselage where the damage was clearly visible.

Abraham Wald, a mathematician, worked on the problem. He noted that reinforcing the spots where damage was evident in returning aircraft wasn’t necessarily the best course of action, given that hits to the cockpit and tail were probably causing aircraft (and aircrew) losses during the mission.  In a series of memorandums, he developed a “method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors.” As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted more than 100 years ago,  “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”NIKE AIR FOOTSCAPE NM SNEAKERS WOLF GREY WHITE 852629 003 SZ 8 DAMAGEDNike Air Jordan CP3.X Men's Basketball Shoe Wolf Grey/White 854294 103 SIZE 10.5

Additionally, we need to reinforce our practice of performing quality literature reviews to aid in our identification of these issues.

The office of Devil’s Advocate was established by Pope Sixtus V in 1587 / Source: Wikimedia Commons, Artist unknownNike Men's Air Max 95 TT (Size 11) “Pull Tab Pack” Black Sail Gym Red AJ1844-002Nike Air Trainer I SB “Dawn Of The Dead” 306193 081 Sz 10 DS OG max dunk 95 90

Employ Skepticism and a Devil’s Advocate Approach.  In 1587, the Roman Catholic Church created the position of Promoter of the Faith – commonly referred to as the Devil’s Advocate. To insure a candidate for sainthood met the qualification of being canonized, the role of the Devil’s Advocate was to be the skeptic (loyal to the institution), looking for reasons why not to canonize the individual.  Similarly, Leaders must embrace the concept of employing a devil’s advocate approach to identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects of technology – if not designating a devil’s advocate with the right expertise to identify assumptions, risks, and effects. But creating any devil’s advocate or “risk identification” positions is only useful if their input is seriously considered.

Embrace the Suck.  Lastly, if we are serious in identifying the 2nd/3rd order and evil effects, NIKE FREE FLYKNIT NSW HOT LAVA BLACK 599459-800 SIZE 11 RUNNING TRAINING SHOESMens Nike Dualtone Racer PRM 924448-004 Black/Black Brand New Size 8to include identifying new dependencies, ethical issues, or other issues which challenge the adaption or development of a new technology or policy – then we must be honest, resilient, and tough. There will be setbacks, delays, and frustration.

FINAL THOUGHT

Technology holds the power to improve and change our personal and professional lives.  For the military, technology changes the ways wars are fought (i.e., the character of war), but it may also change the nature of war by potentially reducing the “human dimension” in war.  If robotics, AI, and other technological developments eliminate “danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction,”17 is war easier to wage?  Will technology increase its potential frequency?  Will technology create a further separation between the military and the population by decreasing the number of personnel needed? These may be some of the 2nd/3rd order and “evil” effects we need to consider.

If you enjoyed this post, please see Dr. Marsella’s previous post “Second/Third Order, and Evil Effects” – The Dark Side of Technology (Nike Mayfly Woven Medium Olive/Light Bone-Black 833132-200 Men's SZ 10)

… as well as the following posts:Men's Nike Free RN Motion Flyknit Size 14 (834584 600) No BoxNike Air Force 1 Ultraforce Mid Black/White Size 10.5 Mens 864014 001 New

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[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish today’s post by guest blogger LTCOL Greg Colton, Australian Army, addressing the intellectual component of military power.  In our current drive to modernize the U.S. Army into a Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-Capable Force by 2028 and set the conditions for fielding an MDO-Ready Force in 2035, we must not forget the lessons learned from our last major transformation in the 1980s. Men's Nike Zoom MW Posite Sz. 8 (616215 083)Nike Air Foamposite One COPPER (314996-007) Men's Copper, SZ 15 US NEW The tactical and operational excellence that enabled us to completely rout Iraqi ground forces in 100 hours was not only the result of effective doctrine and the acquisition of the “Big 5” weapon systems, but also due to the development of our Combat Training Centers (CTCs) and Leader Development platforms like the Non-Commissioned Officer Education System and the School of Advanced Military Studies. Read on to learn how one of our key allies is approaching their Army’s Professional Military Education.]

LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army

We must push ourselves to think in creative and unconstrained ways to ensure our warfighting philosophy is appropriate and informs our future capabilities” — LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army, in Accelerated Warfare

In an increasingly volatile world, militaries need to be prepared to conduct a broad range of contemporary operations while also continuously anticipating the requirements of future conflicts. As the Australian Chief of Army Nike Air Force 1 Foamposite Cup Triple Black AH6771-001 Men's Size 8.5, “Preparedness is dynamic. It requires us to be ready now, while concurrently becoming future ready.” Key to this is the development of the Nike Air Force 1 High '07 Mens 315121-022 Dusty Grey Newsprint Shoes Size 10, both of individuals and of the Army as an organisation, so that the Army is able to adapt to changes in circumstances quickly enough to win future conflicts.

Yet, as the Nike Air Force 1 Low Team Red Light Bone Gum 488298-625 Men’s Size 12 points out, “military institutions recognize the need for leaders who can adapt, but struggle with exactly how to teach or train them to do so.” Within the Australian Army, Professional Military Education (PME) is an important component of a wider approach that blends training, education, and experience to develop a workforce able to cope with the demands of war in an ever-changing environment.

The Army’s approach to PME

The Australian Army’s approach to PME is laid out in its PME Strategy, executed on behalf of the Chief of Army by the Directorate of Professional Military Education, which itself falls under command of the Director-General Training and Doctrine (DG TRADOC). The Directorate uses two broad approaches to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power. First, using the principle of connectivism it seeks to connect those who can impart specialist knowledge to the workforce. Secondly, it seeks to develop organisational adaptability through promoting a contest of ideas. It delivers these approaches through a number of different mechanisms which allows content to be tailored to the target audience. These mechanisms include its online portal, Nike Air Force 180 Barkley 2016 Black Sport Royal 310095-011 Men's Size 10 NEW, unit PME packages, webinars, and conferences.

Connectivism

Trialing a UGV during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2019 with the U.S. / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; CPL Tristan Kennedy, Photographer

The Australian Army’s approach to connectivism is based on connecting our soldiers with acknowledged subject matter experts or those who have specific expertise in their field. A good example of the former is TX Hammes who gave a CoveTalk on the development of artificial intelligence in unmanned platforms, while an example of the latter is this article by a military workshop manager on improving the efficiency of his workshop’s layout and processes. Regardless of the source, connectivism enables the Army to link both experts and expertise with the wider workforce to develop the intellectual component of fighting power within our individual soldiers and officers. In doing so, it promotes the dissemination of best practice across the force.

Australian Army soldiers during Exercise Night Naip 2014 with the Papua New Guinea Defence Force / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; Leading Seaman Justin Brown, Photographer

However, this approach only provides half of the solution. For argument’s sake, let’s take as a given that warfare is an ever-evolving phenomenon. As such,Nike Air Huarache Run Ultra Ballistic Mens AJ1651-200 Mushroom Shoes Size 10New Nike Air Huarache Men's Shoes - Black 13 US best practice in and of itself cannot be enough, as the very term indicates the pre-determination of an optimal solution derived within a static set of variables. The uniqueness of each theatre, campaign, battlefield, or individual soldier’s field of fire will mean that the variables on which best practice has been developed will never exactly replicate. Consequently, tactical solutions to complex problems will rarely (if ever) be found using a cookie cutter Nike Air Huarache Run ALL-WHITE [318429-111] US MEN SZ 6new Nike Air Jordan BCT Mid 2 454043-106 Basketball Shoes Size 8.5template. Instead, we need an Army that is institutionally flexible enough to recognise and incorporate emerging practice to solve unique problem sets. In other words, if best practice provides the theoretical foundations required to understand the tactical problem, emerging practice provides the intellectual adaptability to actually solve it.

A contest of ideas

This leads us to the second approach we use to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power: Nike Air Jordan 6 Retro Low GG DS 768878-015 Anthracite/Anthracite Size 7YNike Air Jordan Retro IV 2017 Pure Money Silver Men's Basketball Shoes Size 10.5 promoting a contest of ideas.  Fostering a culture of contesting ideas has two benefits. Firstly, it gives our people the confidence to analyse the unique problem set they are faced with and recommend bespoke solutions to a hierarchy that is often one or two steps removed from the ground truth. Secondly, and just as importantly, it inculcates an organisational culture within the Army that is willing to recognise, and accept, emerging practice (i.e., the recommendations from those trying to solve the current problem) rather than always insisting on best practice (i.e., what we have always done in similar circumstances). This is essential if we are to win future wars.Nike Men's Air Max 1 Essential Brq Brown/University Bl/Vlt/White Running Shoe 13NIKE AIR MAX 1 ID BLACK-WHITE-VOLT-GUM BROWN SZ 9.5 MESH TOE! [943756-972]

Australian Army Boxer 8×8 Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle (CRV) with 30mm automatic cannon / Source:  Multiple Australian media sites

A good example of how the Australian Army promotes a contest of ideas is The Cove’s recent Nike Air Max 2017 Maroon 849559-601 Men Shoes Size 11, in which readers were invited to submit a ‘script’ of no more than 100 words on what they thought the Army of 2030 should look like. Run over the period of a calendar month, it generated 48 entries from a broad range of authors,NEW Nike Men's Air Max 90 Premium Athletic Shoe Size 10 NIBNike 302519 Men's Air Max 90 Leather Low Top Running Tennis Shoes Sneakers from front-line practitioners to life-long academics. Collectively, these scripts were viewed over 93,000 times in 31 days and were the genesis for numerous comments on our website, within units and messes across the country, and on social media. At the end of the competition,Mens Nike Air Max 95 Premium - Ale Brown/Navy Sail Shoes 538416 200- Size 10.5Men's Nike Air Max LD-Zero - Pure Platinum (848624 004) Size 9 the entries and online discussion were captured and passed on to the Australian Army’s Directorate of Future Land Warfare to inform its work.

This ‘crowd sourcing’ of ideas doesn’t just support the work of those tasked with thinking about the future structures and capabilities of the Army. It also encourages the Army’s people to think about the future of warfare, encourages debate on how the organisation can best meet the challenges of the future, and gives our people the confidence to contribute to that debate.

A complementary approach

The Australian Army’s Combat Training Centre – Jungle Training Wing (CTC-JTW) in TullyNike Air Max Nostalgic Mens 916781-001 Wolf Grey White Running Shoes Size 8Brand New NIKE AIR MAX ST RUNNING WHITE VOLT 652976-102 Size 13

Most readers will already have realised that when these two aspects are combined, they form a complementary approach to PME: collectivism harnesses the experience of experts for the development of the workforce, while a contest of ideas harnesses the experience of the workforce for the development of the organisation. If the Army is to be truly adaptive, one cannot exist without the other. An organisation which always insists on best practice, rather than emerging practice,Nike Air Max Vision Mens 918230-006 Cool Wolf Grey White Running Shoes Size 8 is risking ruin through imposing dogmatic solutions to complex problems, while an army that automatically reacts to instantaneous suggestions from the workforce, ungrounded in theoretical understanding, risks repeating the mistakes of the past.

Thus, contributions need to be sought from a broad range of viewpoints if the Army is to be ready for future conflict. As Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank is at Nike Air More Uptempo White Gum 414962 103 Sz 9:  “Nobody has a monopoly on good ideas.” This is particularly important to remember within hierarchical organisations such as the military.NIKE AIR PYTHON SP SZ: MEN'S 8.5 (658394 100)Nike Air Trainer V. Cruz Prm Victor Men's Size 11 Tennis Shoes Blue 812637 400 It can be all too easy for generals, staff officers, or senior public servants to fall into the trap of believing that experience alone is the foundation of hard-earned knowledge, and that new ideas from juniors that challenge doctrine, the status quo, or the strategic narrative are unnecessarily subversive.

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Yet, when the next war comes it will not be the desk officers or policy experts that do the fighting, or the dying, in foreign fields. It is the young military practitioner who, regardless of rank, will find themselves trying to solve a unique problem set in the most testing of circumstances. In the words of Nassim Taleb, it is they who have ‘Nike Air Jordan 1 Denim KO High OG Mens Size 9.5 Leather Canvas Obsidian White.’ As such, we owe that young soldier or officer not only the very best foundational professional military education we can give them, but also an organisation willing and able to adapt to bespoke solutions based on ground truth. As an Army, we must set the conditions such that our people challenging the status quo and contesting ideas is our organisation’s comfort zone.

This requires a complementary approach to PME, developed and delivered now, so that we may enhance the intellectual component of fighting power in time for the Army to fight, and win, the next war. It is an approach that the team at The Cove is dedicated to delivering for the Australian Army.

If you enjoyed this post, please read: NEW Nike Nike Ballistec Advantage - Black Running, Cross Training (Men's 9.5)NIKE CORTEZ BASIC QS 1972 "TRIPLE BLACK" SZ 14 [842918-001].