- Vlado Footwear Men's Leon Burgundy Mid-Top Shoes IG-2800-T15
- Women's Bass Sabina Size 5M Mid Calf Boots Brown Distressed Leather Zip Up U6
- BANANA REPUBLIC black leather pointy toe mid-calf boots, SZ 6.5M
- Vince Camuto - Hinge Boot, Women's Size 12 M, Black
- Dolce Vita New Sexy Lasso Brown Buckle Tall Knee High Riding Boots Sz 8 $129
- Sam Edelman 'Petty' Chelsea Boots Size 9 US Putty Suede Block Heel
- English laundry Mens Lambeth Fashion Sneaker Shoe Grey Leather Size 10 M
- Bally 'Herick' Red White Blue Leather High Top Sneakers Mens Size 7 D MSRP $525
- Lucasarts Lucien Piccard Mens Navona Analog Display Quartz Brown Watch
- New Mens Flip Flops Genuine Leather Summer Leisure Outdoor Beach Casual Slippers
- Aerosoles Women's Exhibet Ballet Flat - Choose SZ/Color
- PUMA Men's Basket Classic Explosive Fashion Sneaker - Choose SZ/Color
- **Rare color ** Men's Vans OTW Classic Old Skool '77
- Swiss Gear Snow Hiking Mid Calf High Thinsulate Boots Men Size 12
- Men's Saddle Two Tone Chedron Sand Overlay Leather Cowboy Boots Rubber Sole
- Red Wing "Irish Setter" camo, 8 in. tall, hunting boots, Men's 12 D made in USA
- MOODA Mens Oxfords Dress Shoes for Men Ankle Boots Brown Formals SIZE 8 LOYWON
- Men's Merrell Phaser Peak Mid WP Waterproof Hiking Trail Boots Shoes Size Sz 10
- Lugz Women's Empire Hi Winter Boot Golden Wheat/Cream/Gum 8 M US
- Kenneth Cole Reaction Fill The Shoes Wing-Tip Oxfords Men's Shoes Brown Size 7
- Jimmy Choo Black Disguise Leather Biker Flat (8) Boots/Booties Size US 8
- Christian Louboutin Black Leather Round-toe Knee-high New Boots/Booties Size US 7 Regular (M, B)
- Florsheim Men's Castellano Plain Toe Chukka Boots Brown 14152-200
- Puma SF Wedge Selection Ferrari Womens Shoes Black Leather 305519 01 P1
- Stella McCartney Brown Leopard Print Binx Slip On Loafers Platforms Size EU 41 (Approx. US 11) Regular (M, B)
- NEW Nike Hyperdunk 2016 Low Men's Basketball Shoes 844363 444 Blue ALL SIZES
- Jordan's Men"s Shoe size 13
- Adidas Originals Tubular Viral 2 W [BY2122] Women Casual Shoes Ice Pink/White
- Womens Nike Lunareclipse 4 Running Lt Base Grey/Med Base Grey/Volt/Reflect Silv
- Zee Alexis Womens Kerrigan High Top Sneakers Black 6 M
- Womens Ankle Boots Faux Suede Block Mid High Heel Side Zip Round Toe US SZ4.5-10
- NEW Nike Zoom Hawk Flight Bball Shoes 805272-100 White Black Silver Mens Size 13
- NEW MENS NIKE LUNAR PEGASUS 89 RUNNING SHOE SIZE 10 GREY/BLUE/GREEN 599472004
- CLARKS Women's Kearns Sirena Boot, Black Lined Leather, 5.5 M US
- NewRock NEW ROCK NEOTR008-S24 BLACK VINTAGE PRINT ROCK PUNK LADIES LEATHER BOOTS
- BRAND NEW $368 FRYE ILANA FRINGE SAND COLOR SHORT WOMEN'S BOOTS SIZE 7B
- SAS LADIES TRI PAD COMFORT MOCHA LEATHER TIE-UP OXFORD COMFORT SHOES SIZE 6.5 W
- NEW NIB Hotter Laurel Women's Stone Color Slip-On Flat Shoe Size 8M $75
- Man/Woman Clarks Women's Tealia Elva Casual Shoe Special price delicate Cost-effective
- STEVEN BY STEVEN MADEN NC NITRO BLUSH EMBROIDERED SNEACKERS SHOES SIZE
- Dries Van Noten Leather Pointed Toe Loafer
- Adidas Women's Shoes Aerobounce Running DA9964 Gray/Orange
- Nike Air Max 90 Womens 325213-048 Dark Wolf Grey White Running Shoes Size 8.5
- women's shoes MBT 4 / 4,5 () sneakers pink textile dynamic BT21-35
- Sanita Clog SZ 38 Black Textured Leather Slip ons Professional Shoes Clogs
- Dansko Womens Maci Camel Full Grain Slide - 41
- LKNW Navy 308 MADISON for CESARE PACIOTTI Wingtip Oxford Dress Shoes Sz 10 ITALY
- Chaps Shoes Men Brown Leather Loafers Basket Weave Moc Toe Slip Resistant Sz 9.5
- PUMA Men's ARGENTINA BRAZIL Casual Shoes Red/White Size 8.5 357496-03 a2
- Unlisted by Kenneth Cole Men's Joss Oxford - Choose SZ/Color
- VANS Men's Shoes 291358 Black 28ｃｍ
- Nine West Black & Mint Leather Western Boots 6.5 (Euro 37)
- Tan 3" High Heel Round Toe Side Style Sexy Knee Boots Size 7
- Womens Vintage 1980's Cowboy Western Boots Country Size 7 Dexter NICE!
- Gentleman/Lady Western Booties service high quality Current shape
- Palladium Womens Aventure Ankle Bootie- Pick SZ/Color.
- Men's zip up round toe black punk rivets studded hot flat high top shoes boots@#
- Orthofeet Men's Baton Rouge Brown Leather Deck Shoes
- New Cole Haan Pinch Sanford Tassel Loafers Blue Suede C27581 Mens Size 13
- Teva Original Universal Gradient Sandals, black/yellow Men's US SZ12
- Belles ballerines Repetto cuir marron et orange TBE T37, pompons amovibles!
- Men's Platform Wingtips Leather Creeper Brogue Square toe Oxford Shoes
- Puma Mens Spirit Turf Trainer Fizzy Yellow Red Black Soccer Shoes Size 11.5 M
- Gentlemen/Ladies Men’s Black Cowboy Boots Size 10 New Listing Settlement Price Global sales
- Tallia Francesco Boot - Men's Size 7.5M Tan
- Dakota 8" 517 Quad STSP Men's Tan Work Boots 9M
- Truly Vintage Nocona Brown Leather Boots Men's 11.5D
- Mens Leather Round Toe Solid Pull On Knight Knee High Boots Flat Casual Shoes Sz
- MENS GO'WEST SQUARE TOE HARNESS MOTORCYCLE LEATHER BLACK BOOTS SIZE 40
- Giuseppe Zanotti Multicolor Platforms Size US 5 Regular (M, B)
- Valentino Red Garavani Leather Sandals Size EU 39.5 (Approx. US 9.5) Regular (M, B)
- Balenciaga Triple S Sneakers Size EU 39 (Approx. US 9) Regular (M, B)
- Men's Nike LunarEpic Low Flyknit Running Seaweed Green /Black Sz 10 843764 300
- New Nike Men's Lunar Vapor Pro Low Metal Baseball Cleat, Size 13
- Nike Men's Air Epic Speed TR Cross Training Shoes 819003-007 Black/White/Volt
- Womens Nike Air Max 2016 Athletic Shoes Sneakers GREY/PINK 806772 016
- Polar Edge Women’s Thermolite Snow Rain Boots Tan Black Leather Size 7
- Man/Woman Skechers Men's Relto-meson Oxford Louis, elaborate comfortability Fine wild
- Fashion Mens Pointed Toe Low Top Genuine Leather Low Heel Casual Nightclub Shoes
- NEW Adidas Adistar Quick Training/Athletic Shoes Men's Size 10 White/Red/Silver
- Rampage ASHLEY Black Suede Leather Pull On Mid-Calf Boots Womens 8 M Snow Winter
- Mens Nike Kobe AD 922482-100 White/Court Purple Brand New Size 14
- nike dunk low 7.5 collectors
- Womens Patent Leather Punk Back Zip Chelsea Ankle Boots Block Heel Casual Shoes
- VERY FINE LEATHER & LEATHER LINED CLASSIC WOMEN'S BOOTS WITH SIDE BUCKLE
- Man's/Woman's IKRUSH Womens Fliss Bow Flat Pumps Aesthetic appearance modern Popular tide shoes
- Women Casaul Bow Shoes Loafers Patent Leather Clear Transparent TPV 3cm Heels
- Men's/Women's CLARKS Women's Chryssa Jana Dress Pump Economical and practical Preferred material business
- Mr/Ms Bed Stu Loafers High grade auction retail price
- SAS MAUI Slip On Shoes Womens Size 6.5W Wide Width Tan Basket Weave TriPad Flats
- ECCO Women's Arizona Sneaker,Dark Shadow,40 EU/9-9.5 M US
- Customized Dog Print-(White) Running Shoes For Women-Express Shipping-Designed B
- Saucony Excursion TR12 - Women's Grey/Peach 104512
- Cobb Hill Willa High Slipon Black Womens Booties Size 9.5M
- Mizuno Wave Rider 20 Gore-TEX [J1GD177405] Women Running Shoes Blue Aster/Silver
- NEW SKECHERS WOMENS GHENTER ALMENA SLIP RESISTANT LEATHER WORK SHOES
- Allen Edmonds "EASTPORT" Boat Shoes 9 D Brown (256)
- HARDLY WORN John Varvatos Converse 1 A Y244 White Vintage Slip Sneakers 12/14US
- Bacco Bucci Loafers - Apron/Moc Toe Slip On Driving Shoes Italy Men's 10.5 Black
- Men's GH Bass & Co Newport Boat Shoes Sneakers Size 12M Brown Fabric Casual AC10
- WESC Gilliam Black Leather Low Chukka Boots Boat Shoes B405973999 US 7.5
- Womens Warm Waterproof Hard Sole Snow Fur Lined Winter Mid Calf Boots
- NEW Womens RAMPAGE BAILY Black Knee High Flat Fashion Tall Dress Boots sz 8.5
- Bar III Womens Terra Closed Toe Ankle Fashion Boots, Taupe, Size 9.0 FZRE
- boots bottines ATTILIO GIUSTI LEOMBRUNI cuir noir 36
[Editor’s Note: In Part I of this series, Dr. Nick Marsella addressed the duty we have to examine our assumptions about emergent warfighting technologies / capabilities and their associated implications to identify potential second / third order and “evil” effects. Women Over Knee High Riding Boots Chunky Heel Round Toe Side Zipper Shoes Ske15Aerosoles Womens Shore Fit Closed Toe Ankle Fashion Boots Black Size 8.0 f4nL In today’s post, he prescribes five actions we can embrace both individually and as organizations to avoid confirmation bias and falling into cognitive thinking traps when confronting the ramifications of emergent technologies — Enjoy!]
In part I of my blog post, I advised those advocating for the development and/or fielding of technology to be mindful of the second/third order and possible “evil” effects. I defined “evil” as an unexpected and profound negative implication(s) of the adoption/adaption of a technology and related policy. I also recommended heeding the admonition of Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, to take responsibility for our technological creations and have the courage to think things through their potential implications – both for the good and the bad.
But even if we as individuals are willing to challenge our assumptions and think broadly and imaginatively, we can still come up short. Why? The answer is due in part to the challenges of prediction and the fact we are human with both great cognitive abilities, but also weaknesses.
First, common sense and many theorists remind us that the future is unknowable.Women's Over Knee High Boots Pull On Down Casual Kitten Heel Clubwear New HotEmbroidery Floral Round Toe Chunky High Heel Knee-high Side Zip Women Boot Zhou8The futurist Arthur C. Clark noted in 1962, “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” Within this fixed condition of unknowing, the U.S. Departments of Defense and the Army must make choices to determine:
– what capabilities we desire and its related technology;
– where to invest in research and development; and
As Michael E. Raynor pointed out in his book, NEW EMU WOOL SUEDE LEATHER BOOTS WOMENS 5 AUSTRALIAN MERINO WOOL LINING, making choices and developing strategies, which include adopting new technology, where the future is unknowable and “deeply unpredictable” either produces monumental successes or monumental failures.Helly Hansen Womens tundra cwb Closed Toe Mid-Calf Cold Weather BootsWomens Chelsea Block High Heel Ankle Boots Pointed Toe Ladies Rhiestone Shoes For a company this can spell financial ruin, while for the Army, it can spell disaster and the loss of Soldiers’ lives and national treasure. Yet, we must also choose a “way ahead” – often by considering “boundaries” – in a sense the left and right limits – of potential implications.
Second, our ability to predict when technology will become available is often in error nor can we accurately determine its implications. For example, in a New York Times editorial on December 8, 1903, it noted: “A man carrying airplane will eventually be built, Womens Over Knee Zip Denim Ripped Hole Retro Chic Boots Kitten Heels Shoes NewBlack Women Faux Leather Thigh High Boots Round Toe Med Block Heel Casual Shoesbut only if mathematicians and engineers work steadily for the next ten million years.”5 The Wright Brothers first flight took place the following week, but it took decades for commercial and military aviation to evolve.
Each of the services has faced force modernization challenges due to the adoption of technologies that weren’t mature enough; whose capabilities were over-promised; or did not support operations in the envisioned Operational Environment. For the U.S. Army, Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the most obvious and recent example of this challenge – costing billions of dollars and, just as importantly, lost time and confidence.Vintage Womens Slouch Riding Pull On Pointed Toe Wedge Mid Heels Shoes VogueWomens Hollow Stilettos High Heel Ankle Boots Suede Pointed Toe Back Zip Shoes
Third, in terms of future technology, predictions vary widely. For example, predictions by MIT’s Rodney Brooks and futurist/inventor Ray Kurzweil vary widely to the question – “What year do you think human-level Artificial Intelligence [AI, i.e., a true thinking machine] might be achieved with a 50% probability?” Kurzweil predicts AI (as defined) will be available in 2029, while Brooks is a bit more conservative – the year 2200 – a difference of over 170 years.Vince Camuto Women's Bessey Suede Block-Heeled Ankle Booties Black2016 Women's Round toe Ankle Strap Buckle Knee High Boots Block High heels shoes
While one can understand the difficulty of predicting when “general AI” will be available, other technologies offer similar difficulties. The vision of the “self-driving” autonomous vehicle was first written about and experimented with in the 1920s, yet technological limitations, legal concerns, customer fears, and other barriers make implementing this capability challenging.
Lastly, as Rodney Brooks has highlighted, G by Guess Alta2-X Winter Boots, Black Multi, 5.5 US maintains:
“we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”Propet Women's Blizzard Ankle Zip II Boot
SECOND, THIRD ORDER AND EVIL EFFECTS
– intentionally focus on the positive effects of adopting a technology;
– ignore the experts and those who identify the potential downside of technology; and
– fail to think thorough the short, long, and potentially dangerous effects or dependencies – imaginatively.
We do this because we are human, and more often because we fall into the confirmation bias or other cognitive thinking traps that might affect our program or pet technology. As noted by RAND in Truth Decay:Vince Camuto Women's Brissa Leather Pull-On Ankle Booties BlackCircus by Sam Edelman Women's Paula Ankle Boot
“Cognitive biases and the ways in which human beings process information and make decisions cause people to look for information, opinion, and analyses that confirm preexisting beliefs, to weigh experience more heavily than data and facts, and then to rely on mental shortcuts and the beliefs of those in the same social networks when forming opinions and making decisions.”9
Yet, the warning signs or signals for many unanticipated effects can be found simply by conducting a literature review of government, think tank, academic, and popular reports (to perhaps include science fiction). This may deter some, given the sheer volume of literature is often overwhelming, but contained within these reports are many of the challenges associated with future technology, such as: the potential for deep fakes, loss of privacy, hacking,Hollow Out Women's Ankle Boots Denim Shoes Open Toe Leisure High Stiletto HeelSexy NEW Womens Stretchy Denim Chunky High Heels Knee High Boots Platform Shoes accidents, deception, and loss of industries/jobs.
At the national level, both the current and previous administrations published reports on AI, as has the Department of Defense – some more balanced in addressing of issues of fairness, safety, governance, and ethics.10
For example, using photo recognition to help law enforcement and others seems like a great idea, yet its use is increasingly being questioned. This past May, San Francisco became the first city to ban its use, and others may follow suit.11 While some question this decision to ban vice impose a moratorium until the technology produces less errors, the question remains – did the developers and policy makers consider if there would be push back to its introduction given its current performance?KEEN Womens Brown Work & Safety Boots Size 9 (C,D,W) (355880)New Women's Toscana Pile Tech Earmuffs Black What sources did they consult?
Another challenge is language. You’ve seen the commercials – “there is much we can do with AI” – in farming, business, and even beer making. While “AI” is a clever tag line, it may invoke unnecessary fear and misunderstanding. For example, I believe for most people equate “robotics” and “AI” with the “Terminator” franchise, raising the fear of uncontrolled autonomous military force overwhelming humanity. Even worse – under the moniker of “AI,” we will buy into “snake-oil” propositions.
We are at least decades away from “general AI” where a “system exhibits apparently intelligence behavior at least as advanced as a person” across the “full range of cognitive tasks,” but we continue to flaunt the use of “AI” without elaboration.Qupid Cutout Leather Peep Toe Buckled Chunky Heeled BootiesBearpaw Piper - Women's Casual Suede Bootie - 2037w Dove Grey - 11
SOME ACTIONS TO TAKE
Embrace a learning organization. Popularized by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990), a learning organization is a place “where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together.”Durango Women's Motorcycle Boots size 6 1/2M Harness Black Leather While some question whether we can truly make a learning organization, Senge’s thinking may help solve our problem of identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects.
First, we must embrace new and expansive patterns of thinking. Force developers use the acronym – “DOTMPLF-P” as shorthand for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities, and Policy implications – yet other factors might be as important.
For example, trust in automated or robotics systems must be instilled and measured. In one poll, 73% of respondents noted they would be afraid of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle – up 10% points from the previous year.14 What if we develop a military autonomous vehicle or a leader-follower system and one or more of our host nation allies prohibits its use? What happens if an accident occurs and the host population protests, Aldo Ankle Boots Metallic Gold Faux Suede Rose Size 8.5 Pull On Zipper ClosureLa Redoute Collections Womens High-Heeled Cowboy Bootsarguing that the Americans don’t care for their safety?
Technologists and concept developers must move from being stove-piped in labs and single-focused to consider the broader view of technological implications across functions.
Embrace Humility. Given that we cannot predict the future and its potential consequences, developers must seek out diversified opinions, and more importantly, recognize divergent opinions.
Embrace the Data. In New York City during World War II, a small organization of some of the most brilliant minds in America worked in the office of the “Applied Mathematics Panel.” In Europe, the 8th U.S. Air Force suffered from devastating bomber losses. Dolce Vita Women's Ysbel Sneaker, Off White Leather, 7.5 M USMERRELL Women’s Larkspur Tall Brown Leather Boots Size 8Leaders wondered where best to reinforce the bombers with additional armor without significantly increasing their weight to improve survivability. Reports indicated returning bombers suffered gunfire hits over the wings and fuselage, but not in the tail or cockpits, so to the casual observer it made sense to reinforce the wings and fuselage where the damage was clearly visible.
Abraham Wald, a mathematician, worked on the problem. He noted that reinforcing the spots where damage was evident in returning aircraft wasn’t necessarily the best course of action, given that hits to the cockpit and tail were probably causing aircraft (and aircrew) losses during the mission. In a series of memorandums, he developed a “method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors.” As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted more than 100 years ago, “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”fashion woman leather flat knee high boots patchwork zip winter riding bootsHARLEY DAVIDSON Brown Leather Falicity Boots Round Toe Mid calf Biker 8.5
Additionally, we need to reinforce our practice of performing quality literature reviews to aid in our identification of these issues.
Employ Skepticism and a Devil’s Advocate Approach. In 1587, the Roman Catholic Church created the position of Promoter of the Faith – commonly referred to as the Devil’s Advocate. To insure a candidate for sainthood met the qualification of being canonized, the role of the Devil’s Advocate was to be the skeptic (loyal to the institution), looking for reasons why not to canonize the individual. Similarly, Leaders must embrace the concept of employing a devil’s advocate approach to identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects of technology – if not designating a devil’s advocate with the right expertise to identify assumptions, risks, and effects. But creating any devil’s advocate or “risk identification” positions is only useful if their input is seriously considered.
Embrace the Suck. Lastly, if we are serious in identifying the 2nd/3rd order and evil effects, Everybody Women's Gia, Black, 39 BR/9 M USDemonia Womens Motorcycle Boots Size 12 (18247)to include identifying new dependencies, ethical issues, or other issues which challenge the adaption or development of a new technology or policy – then we must be honest, resilient, and tough. There will be setbacks, delays, and frustration.
Technology holds the power to improve and change our personal and professional lives. For the military, technology changes the ways wars are fought (i.e., the character of war), but it may also change the nature of war by potentially reducing the “human dimension” in war. If robotics, AI, and other technological developments eliminate “danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction,”17 is war easier to wage? Will technology increase its potential frequency? Will technology create a further separation between the military and the population by decreasing the number of personnel needed? These may be some of the 2nd/3rd order and “evil” effects we need to consider.
If you enjoyed this post, please see Dr. Marsella’s previous post “Second/Third Order, and Evil Effects” – The Dark Side of Technology (Hi-Tec Women's Bandera Mid-Rise Waterproof Hiking Boot Taupe/Blush 8 M US)
… as well as the following posts:Nine West High Boots Black Suede Leather 7.5 M NwadeleCole Haan black leather calf length side zip boots size 7
– Banana Republic Hannah Bootie Women Boots, Suede, Biscotti, Size 6M, by Dr. Nir Buras