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[Editor’s Note:  In Part I of this series, Dr. Nick Marsella addressed the duty we have to examine our assumptions about emergent warfighting technologies / capabilities and their associated implications to identify potential second / third order and “evil” effects. NIKE WOMENS AIR MAX 2016 SHOES HYPER ORANGE BLACK SUNSET SIZE 8.5Nike Air Max 97 CONFETTI qs BLACK SPECKLE UL 17 PRM AO2325 002 off white WOMEN 6 In today’s post, he prescribes five actions we can embrace both individually and as organizations to avoid confirmation bias and falling into cognitive thinking traps when confronting the ramifications of emergent technologies — Enjoy!]

In part I of my blog post, I advised those advocating for the development and/or fielding of technology to be mindful of the second/third order and possible “evil” effects. I defined “evil” as an unexpected and profound negative implication(s) of the adoption/adaption of a technology and related policy. I also recommended heeding the admonition of Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, to take responsibility for our technological creations and have the courage to think things through their potential implications – both for the good and the bad.

But even if we as individuals are willing to challenge our assumptions and think broadly and imaginatively, we can still come up short.  Why?  The answer is due in part to the challenges of prediction and the fact we are human with both great cognitive abilities, but also weaknesses.

THE CHALLENGES

First, common sense and many theorists remind us that the future is unknowable.NIKE LAB WOMENS AIR MAX 1 ONE ROYAL 847672-221 TAN LINEN WHITE DS SIZE: 6.5SALE NIKE AIR FORCE 1 HIGH SF HI PORT WINE SE PREMIUM aj0963 600 WOMENS WMNSThe futurist Arthur C. Clark noted in 1962, “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” Within this fixed condition of unknowing, the U.S. Departments of Defense and the Army must make choices to determine:

– what capabilities we desire and its related technology;

– where to invest in research and development; and

– what to purchase and field.NIKE AIR ZOOM PEGASUS 35 PREMIUM WOMENS RUNNING OIL GREY - GRIDIRON - ATMOSPHERENEW NIKE AIR HUARACHE CITY WOMENS CASUAL SHOES WOLF GREY LIGHT RETRO GRAPE 5 -12

Source: Penguin Random House

As Michael E. Raynor pointed out in his book, NIKE LUNARSOLO WOMEN's RUNNING DARK SKY BLUE - CHROME - GLACIER BLUE AUTHENTIC, making choices and developing strategies, which include adopting new technology, where the future is unknowable and “deeply unpredictable” either produces monumental successes or monumental failures.Women's Nike Epic React Flyknit Cargo Khaki Shoes -Size 10.5 -AQ0070 300 Nike Air Max 1 BHM QS 2014 WMNS For a company this can spell financial ruin, while for the Army, it can spell disaster and the loss of Soldiers’ lives and national treasure.  Yet, we must also choose a “way ahead” – often by considering “boundaries” – in a sense the left and right limits – of potential implications.

Second, our ability to predict when technology will become available is often in error nor can we accurately determine its implications. For example, in a New York Times editorial on December 8, 1903, it noted:  “A man carrying airplane will eventually be built, AUTHENTIC NIKE Air Max Thea Premium Stealth Grey Platinum 616723 009 Women szNIKE GIRLS AIR JORDAN SPIZIKE GS GREY-PINK WMNS SZ 7.5 - SZ 6Y [535712-028]but only if mathematicians and engineers work steadily for the next ten million years.”5  The Wright Brothers first flight took place the following week, but it took decades for commercial and military aviation to evolve.

The stillborn Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the U.S. Army’s principal modernization program during the first decade of the Twenty-First century / Source: 
PM FCS, U.S. Army

Each of the services has faced force modernization challenges due to the adoption of technologies that weren’t mature enough; whose capabilities were over-promised; or did not support operations in the envisioned Operational Environment.  For the U.S. Army, Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the most obvious and recent example of this challenge – costing billions of dollars and, just as importantly, lost time and confidence.NIKE Women's AIR HUARACHE 'FLIGHT CLUB' 634835-401 Blue SHOES - 7 / 38Nike Free Rn Motion Running Women's Shoes Size

Third, in terms of future technology, predictions vary widely. For example, predictions by MIT’s Rodney Brooks and futurist/inventor Ray Kurzweil vary widely to the question – “What year do you think human-level Artificial Intelligence [AI, i.e., a true thinking machine] might be achieved with a 50% probability?” Kurzweil predicts AI (as defined) will be available in 2029, while Brooks is a bit more conservative – the year 2200 – a difference of over 170 years.WOMEN'S NIKE AIR MAX 90 ULTRA 2.0 CASUAL SHOES SIZE: 6.5 PALM GREEN 881106 300Nike Lunarepic Loflyknit Running Women's Shoes Size 5

While one can understand the difficulty of predicting when “general AI” will be available, other technologies offer similar difficulties. The vision of the “self-driving” autonomous vehicle was first written about and experimented with in the 1920s, yet technological limitations, legal concerns, customer fears, and other barriers make implementing this capability challenging.

Gartner Hype Cycle / Source: Nicole Saraco Loddo, Gartner

Lastly, as Rodney Brooks has highlighted, NIKE Women's Lunarepic Low Flyknit 2 Running Shoe White/Black-Pure Platinum 5... maintains:

we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”NIKE Air Huarache Run PRM TXT Women's Running Shoes Khaki/Summit White aa0523-20

SECOND, THIRD ORDER AND EVIL EFFECTS

I contend that we either:NIKE Women's Air Max 2017 Running ShoesNike Wmns Air Max Plus Dark Stucco Vintage Green Sail Running 605112-053 Size 12

intentionally focus on the positive effects of adopting a technology;

ignore the experts and those who identify the potential downside of technology; and

fail to think thorough the short, long, and potentially dangerous effects or dependencies – imaginatively.

We do this because we are human, and more often because we fall into the confirmation bias or other cognitive thinking traps that might affect our program or pet technology. As noted by RAND in Truth Decay:New Nike Free Flyknit Focus 2 Bionic Training Run Shoes 5 Blush Sunset PinkNike ID Epic React Flyknit Women’s Running Shoes Size 7

Source: Pixabay

Cognitive biases and the ways in which human beings process information and make decisions cause people to look for information, opinion, and analyses that confirm preexisting beliefs, to weigh experience more heavily than data and facts, and then to rely on mental shortcuts and the beliefs of those in the same social networks when forming opinions and making decisions.”9

Yet, the warning signs or signals for many unanticipated effects can be found simply by conducting a literature review of government, think tank, academic, and popular reports (to perhaps include science fiction). This may deter some, given the sheer volume of literature is often overwhelming, but contained within these reports are many of the challenges associated with future technology, such as:  the potential for deep fakes, loss of privacy, hacking,NEW WOMENS NIKE FLYKNIT CHUKKA FSB CRIMSON BLACK SEQUOIA Size 8Nike Airmax Plus Particle Pink Rose Gold Womens size 6 accidents, deception, and loss of industries/jobs.

At the national level, both the current and previous administrations published reports on AI, as has the Department of Defense – some more balanced in addressing of issues of fairness, safety, governance, and ethics.10

Source: PixabayNIKE AIR HUARACHE RUN Pink wheat gum RED FLORAL 6 - 12 sunset white black BeigeWMNS NIKE FREE 5.0 TR FIT 5 PRT PRINT DB "DOERNBECHER" SZ 5 [839122-540]

For example, using photo recognition to help law enforcement and others seems like a great idea, yet its use is increasingly being questioned. This past May, San Francisco became the first city to ban its use, and others may follow suit.11  While some question this decision to ban vice impose a moratorium until the technology produces less errors, the question remains – did the developers and policy makers consider if there would be push back to its introduction given its current performance?Womens Nike Air Max 90 Ultra 2.0 Ease Casual Shoes Smokey Mauve/White AO1520 200Nike Air Force 1 '07 Low Particle Beige/Hyper Royal/Aloe Verde/White 98889202 What sources did they consult?

Another challenge is language. You’ve seen the commercials – “there is much we can do with AI” – in farming, business, and even beer making.  While “AI” is a clever tag line, it may invoke unnecessary fear and misunderstanding.  For example, I believe for most people equate “robotics” and “AI” with the “Terminator” franchise, raising the fear of uncontrolled autonomous military force overwhelming humanity.  Even worse – under the moniker of “AI,” we will buy into “snake-oil” propositions.

We are at least decades away from “general AI” where a “system exhibits apparently intelligence behavior at least as advanced as a person” across the “full range of cognitive tasks,” but we continue to flaunt the use of “AI” without elaboration.Nike Air Huarache City Womens Speed Red/Speed Red/Black/Gum Light Brown H6787600Nike Odyssey React Running Oracle Pink/Pink Tint/Coral Stardust AO9820 601

SOME ACTIONS TO TAKE

Embrace a learning organization. Popularized by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990), a learning organization is a place “where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together.”Nike Air Force 1 Jester - Women's White/University Red O1220106 While some question whether we can truly make a learning organization, Senge’s thinking may help solve our problem of identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects.

First, we must embrace new and expansive patterns of thinking.  Force developers use the acronym – “DOTMPLF-P” as shorthand for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities, and Policy implications – yet other factors might be as important.

A convoy of leader-follower Palletized Load System (PLS) vehicles at Fort Bliss, TX / Source: U.S. Army photo by Jerome AliottaNike Air Huarache City Women's Black/Black/Dark Grey/Gum Light Brown H6787003WMNS Nike M2K Tekno AO3108-101 US 7.5 - 10.5 IN HAND Orange Blue White Black New

For example, trust in automated or robotics systems must be instilled and measured.  In one poll, 73% of respondents noted they would be afraid of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle – up 10% points from the previous year.14  What if we develop a military autonomous vehicle or a leader-follower system and one or more of our host nation allies prohibits its use? What happens if an accident occurs and the host population protests, Adidas Men's Adizero 5 Star 5.0 X Kevlar Football Ckeats AQ6931 New 8Adidas Messi 16.1 FG S79624 Soccer Cleatsarguing that the Americans don’t care for their safety?

Technologists and concept developers must move from being stove-piped in labs and single-focused to consider the broader view of technological implications across functions.

Embrace Humility. Given that we cannot predict the future and its potential consequences, developers must seek out diversified opinions, and more importantly, recognize divergent opinions.

U.S. B-17 bombers on mission to destroy Germany’s war production industries, Summer of 1944 / Source: U.S. Air Force photo

Embrace the Data.  In New York City during World War II, a small organization of some of the most brilliant minds in America worked in the office of the “Applied Mathematics Panel.”  In Europe, the 8th U.S. Air Force suffered from devastating bomber losses.  Adidas X 17.2 FG NSG Mens Soccer Cleats Size 7.5 Gold Metallic Black CP9186 NewAdidas Mens Freak X Kevlar Lineman Football Cleats Silver Black B27692Leaders wondered where best to reinforce the bombers with additional armor without significantly increasing their weight to improve survivability. Reports indicated returning bombers suffered gunfire hits over the wings and fuselage, but not in the tail or cockpits, so to the casual observer it made sense to reinforce the wings and fuselage where the damage was clearly visible.

Abraham Wald, a mathematician, worked on the problem. He noted that reinforcing the spots where damage was evident in returning aircraft wasn’t necessarily the best course of action, given that hits to the cockpit and tail were probably causing aircraft (and aircrew) losses during the mission.  In a series of memorandums, he developed a “method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors.” As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted more than 100 years ago,  “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”ADIDAS X 16.1 FG LEA US 11,5 FOOTBALL BOOTS SOCCER CLEATSAuthentic Adidas Predator Absolado TRX FG 661103 11.5 Red Beckham Soccer

Additionally, we need to reinforce our practice of performing quality literature reviews to aid in our identification of these issues.

The office of Devil’s Advocate was established by Pope Sixtus V in 1587 / Source: Wikimedia Commons, Artist unknownPREDATOR 18.2 FG - AdidasAdidas 16.2 Soccer Cleats Size 9

Employ Skepticism and a Devil’s Advocate Approach.  In 1587, the Roman Catholic Church created the position of Promoter of the Faith – commonly referred to as the Devil’s Advocate. To insure a candidate for sainthood met the qualification of being canonized, the role of the Devil’s Advocate was to be the skeptic (loyal to the institution), looking for reasons why not to canonize the individual.  Similarly, Leaders must embrace the concept of employing a devil’s advocate approach to identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects of technology – if not designating a devil’s advocate with the right expertise to identify assumptions, risks, and effects. But creating any devil’s advocate or “risk identification” positions is only useful if their input is seriously considered.

Embrace the Suck.  Lastly, if we are serious in identifying the 2nd/3rd order and evil effects, Adidas 18.3 Predator IN Indoor Soccer Shoes White / Red CP9929 US 10.5Adidas Messi 15.1 TRX FG Synthetic B34359 Football / Soccer SALE 50%to include identifying new dependencies, ethical issues, or other issues which challenge the adaption or development of a new technology or policy – then we must be honest, resilient, and tough. There will be setbacks, delays, and frustration.

FINAL THOUGHT

Technology holds the power to improve and change our personal and professional lives.  For the military, technology changes the ways wars are fought (i.e., the character of war), but it may also change the nature of war by potentially reducing the “human dimension” in war.  If robotics, AI, and other technological developments eliminate “danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction,”17 is war easier to wage?  Will technology increase its potential frequency?  Will technology create a further separation between the military and the population by decreasing the number of personnel needed? These may be some of the 2nd/3rd order and “evil” effects we need to consider.

If you enjoyed this post, please see Dr. Marsella’s previous post “Second/Third Order, and Evil Effects” – The Dark Side of Technology (ADIDAS X 16.1 FG SOCCER CLEATS BB5838 SZ US 9.5)

… as well as the following posts:adidas Ace 16.1 FG S79661 cleats men soccer boots rareadidas Performance Men's Nemeziz Messi 17.2 FG Soccer Shoe

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[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish today’s post by guest blogger LTCOL Greg Colton, Australian Army, addressing the intellectual component of military power.  In our current drive to modernize the U.S. Army into a Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-Capable Force by 2028 and set the conditions for fielding an MDO-Ready Force in 2035, we must not forget the lessons learned from our last major transformation in the 1980s. Adidas Predator LZ TRX FG - Q21664 - US Size 7adidas Nitrocharge 1.0 TRX FG (Model F32766) (Men) The tactical and operational excellence that enabled us to completely rout Iraqi ground forces in 100 hours was not only the result of effective doctrine and the acquisition of the “Big 5” weapon systems, but also due to the development of our Combat Training Centers (CTCs) and Leader Development platforms like the Non-Commissioned Officer Education System and the School of Advanced Military Studies. Read on to learn how one of our key allies is approaching their Army’s Professional Military Education.]

LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army

We must push ourselves to think in creative and unconstrained ways to ensure our warfighting philosophy is appropriate and informs our future capabilities” — LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army, in Accelerated Warfare

In an increasingly volatile world, militaries need to be prepared to conduct a broad range of contemporary operations while also continuously anticipating the requirements of future conflicts. As the Australian Chief of Army adidas F10 TRX FG 2011 Soccer Shoes Adenozied Blue - Electricity Brand New, “Preparedness is dynamic. It requires us to be ready now, while concurrently becoming future ready.” Key to this is the development of the ADIDAS F50.6 TUNIT US 8 FOOTBALL BOOTS SOCCER CLEATS, both of individuals and of the Army as an organisation, so that the Army is able to adapt to changes in circumstances quickly enough to win future conflicts.

Yet, as the Adidas predatop powerserver US12 (Pulse Absolute Mania) points out, “military institutions recognize the need for leaders who can adapt, but struggle with exactly how to teach or train them to do so.” Within the Australian Army, Professional Military Education (PME) is an important component of a wider approach that blends training, education, and experience to develop a workforce able to cope with the demands of war in an ever-changing environment.

The Army’s approach to PME

The Australian Army’s approach to PME is laid out in its PME Strategy, executed on behalf of the Chief of Army by the Directorate of Professional Military Education, which itself falls under command of the Director-General Training and Doctrine (DG TRADOC). The Directorate uses two broad approaches to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power. First, using the principle of connectivism it seeks to connect those who can impart specialist knowledge to the workforce. Secondly, it seeks to develop organisational adaptability through promoting a contest of ideas. It delivers these approaches through a number of different mechanisms which allows content to be tailored to the target audience. These mechanisms include its online portal, New Men's Size 13 NSG Adidas ACE 16.1 Primeknit FG Soccer Cleats Shoes S76470, unit PME packages, webinars, and conferences.

Connectivism

Trialing a UGV during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2019 with the U.S. / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; CPL Tristan Kennedy, Photographer

The Australian Army’s approach to connectivism is based on connecting our soldiers with acknowledged subject matter experts or those who have specific expertise in their field. A good example of the former is TX Hammes who gave a CoveTalk on the development of artificial intelligence in unmanned platforms, while an example of the latter is this article by a military workshop manager on improving the efficiency of his workshop’s layout and processes. Regardless of the source, connectivism enables the Army to link both experts and expertise with the wider workforce to develop the intellectual component of fighting power within our individual soldiers and officers. In doing so, it promotes the dissemination of best practice across the force.

Australian Army soldiers during Exercise Night Naip 2014 with the Papua New Guinea Defence Force / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; Leading Seaman Justin Brown, Photographer

However, this approach only provides half of the solution. For argument’s sake, let’s take as a given that warfare is an ever-evolving phenomenon. As such,Adidas Men NEMEZIZ 17.3 HG Cleats Soccer Red Black Football Shoes Spike CQ1989adidas Adizero 5-Star 6.0 Cleat - Men's Football SKU BW1087 Size 16 best practice in and of itself cannot be enough, as the very term indicates the pre-determination of an optimal solution derived within a static set of variables. The uniqueness of each theatre, campaign, battlefield, or individual soldier’s field of fire will mean that the variables on which best practice has been developed will never exactly replicate. Consequently, tactical solutions to complex problems will rarely (if ever) be found using a cookie cutter Adidas Men's Adizero 5 Star 5.0 X Kevlar Football Ckeats AQ6931 New 18adidas Men's Messi 16.1 FG Red/Scarlet/White BB1878template. Instead, we need an Army that is institutionally flexible enough to recognise and incorporate emerging practice to solve unique problem sets. In other words, if best practice provides the theoretical foundations required to understand the tactical problem, emerging practice provides the intellectual adaptability to actually solve it.

A contest of ideas

This leads us to the second approach we use to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power: Adidas SM Freak Mid RC Molded Football Cleats Green/Orange/White DB0850 Sz 12Miami Hurricanes Adidas Crazyquick 2.0 High Wide2 Football Cleats AQ8574 Sz 14 promoting a contest of ideas.  Fostering a culture of contesting ideas has two benefits. Firstly, it gives our people the confidence to analyse the unique problem set they are faced with and recommend bespoke solutions to a hierarchy that is often one or two steps removed from the ground truth. Secondly, and just as importantly, it inculcates an organisational culture within the Army that is willing to recognise, and accept, emerging practice (i.e., the recommendations from those trying to solve the current problem) rather than always insisting on best practice (i.e., what we have always done in similar circumstances). This is essential if we are to win future wars.Mens ADIDAS D LILLARD 2 Primeknit PK Basketball Shoes White Black B49711 Sz 14.5adidas Dame 3 Shoe - Men's Basketball SKU BY3196 Size 10

Australian Army Boxer 8×8 Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle (CRV) with 30mm automatic cannon / Source:  Multiple Australian media sites

A good example of how the Australian Army promotes a contest of ideas is The Cove’s recent Adidas Mens Baseball Metal Cleats Black Red Energy Boost Icon Q16525, in which readers were invited to submit a ‘script’ of no more than 100 words on what they thought the Army of 2030 should look like. Run over the period of a calendar month, it generated 48 entries from a broad range of authors,RARE Adidas (CG5483) Kris Bryant Icon 3 baseball Cleats Size 13.5adidas Performance Womens Ace 16.2 Primemesh FG/AG W Soccer Shoe from front-line practitioners to life-long academics. Collectively, these scripts were viewed over 93,000 times in 31 days and were the genesis for numerous comments on our website, within units and messes across the country, and on social media. At the end of the competition,adidas 17.3 TF Messi 2017 Turf Soccer Shoes Blue - Pink - White Kids - Youthadidas Nemeziz Messi 17.3 Indoor 2017 Soccer Shoes White / Orange Kids - Youth the entries and online discussion were captured and passed on to the Australian Army’s Directorate of Future Land Warfare to inform its work.

This ‘crowd sourcing’ of ideas doesn’t just support the work of those tasked with thinking about the future structures and capabilities of the Army. It also encourages the Army’s people to think about the future of warfare, encourages debate on how the organisation can best meet the challenges of the future, and gives our people the confidence to contribute to that debate.

A complementary approach

The Australian Army’s Combat Training Centre – Jungle Training Wing (CTC-JTW) in Tullyadidas 17.3 IN Messi 2017 Indoor Soccer Shoes Copper - Green -Black Kids - Youthadidas Kids' Rundown Baseball Cleats Size :5 Black

Most readers will already have realised that when these two aspects are combined, they form a complementary approach to PME: collectivism harnesses the experience of experts for the development of the workforce, while a contest of ideas harnesses the experience of the workforce for the development of the organisation. If the Army is to be truly adaptive, one cannot exist without the other. An organisation which always insists on best practice, rather than emerging practice,Adidas Ultraboost X Women White Silver BB0879 size 12 new! is risking ruin through imposing dogmatic solutions to complex problems, while an army that automatically reacts to instantaneous suggestions from the workforce, ungrounded in theoretical understanding, risks repeating the mistakes of the past.

Thus, contributions need to be sought from a broad range of viewpoints if the Army is to be ready for future conflict. As Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank is at adidas Womens DEERUPT RUNNER W Green/Green/Black - CQ2911:  “Nobody has a monopoly on good ideas.” This is particularly important to remember within hierarchical organisations such as the military.$150 size 7.5 NIKE Air Max Thea Ultra Fk Red Black Womens Running Sneakers NEWNew Women's Nike SF AF1 Size 8.5 Light Bone Gum Athletic Shoes It can be all too easy for generals, staff officers, or senior public servants to fall into the trap of believing that experience alone is the foundation of hard-earned knowledge, and that new ideas from juniors that challenge doctrine, the status quo, or the strategic narrative are unnecessarily subversive.

Soldiers from the 7th Combat Signal Regiment (7 CSR) / Source:  WOMEN'S NIKE AIR MAX THEA SE 861674-900 METALLIC ARMORY NAVY SIZE 9 MSRP $115.00A413 Nike Women's Air Max 1 Premium 454746-107 White Size 10 New Retail $120

Yet, when the next war comes it will not be the desk officers or policy experts that do the fighting, or the dying, in foreign fields. It is the young military practitioner who, regardless of rank, will find themselves trying to solve a unique problem set in the most testing of circumstances. In the words of Nassim Taleb, it is they who have ‘Nike Size 6.5 Black Sneakers New Womens Shoes.’ As such, we owe that young soldier or officer not only the very best foundational professional military education we can give them, but also an organisation willing and able to adapt to bespoke solutions based on ground truth. As an Army, we must set the conditions such that our people challenging the status quo and contesting ideas is our organisation’s comfort zone.

This requires a complementary approach to PME, developed and delivered now, so that we may enhance the intellectual component of fighting power in time for the Army to fight, and win, the next war. It is an approach that the team at The Cove is dedicated to delivering for the Australian Army.

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