Toga Pulla White Leather Buckle Slip On Sneakers Women’s Sz 10 NIB 0

[Editor’s Note:  In Part I of this series, Dr. Nick Marsella addressed the duty we have to examine our assumptions about emergent warfighting technologies / capabilities and their associated implications to identify potential second / third order and “evil” effects. Seychelles Women's So Nice Fashion Sneaker, Taupe, 7.5 M USNIB Tory Burch LAGUNA Espadrille Flat Shoes Loafer Espadrille Natural Multi 9.5 In today’s post, he prescribes five actions we can embrace both individually and as organizations to avoid confirmation bias and falling into cognitive thinking traps when confronting the ramifications of emergent technologies — Enjoy!]

In part I of my blog post, I advised those advocating for the development and/or fielding of technology to be mindful of the second/third order and possible “evil” effects. I defined “evil” as an unexpected and profound negative implication(s) of the adoption/adaption of a technology and related policy. I also recommended heeding the admonition of Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, to take responsibility for our technological creations and have the courage to think things through their potential implications – both for the good and the bad.

But even if we as individuals are willing to challenge our assumptions and think broadly and imaginatively, we can still come up short.  Why?  The answer is due in part to the challenges of prediction and the fact we are human with both great cognitive abilities, but also weaknesses.

THE CHALLENGES

First, common sense and many theorists remind us that the future is unknowable.Donald Pliner Couture Crystals Leather Shoe New Sz 5 6.5 Velvet Footbed $245 NIBMunro Traveler Flats - Women's Size 8.5 N - BlackThe futurist Arthur C. Clark noted in 1962, “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” Within this fixed condition of unknowing, the U.S. Departments of Defense and the Army must make choices to determine:

– what capabilities we desire and its related technology;

– where to invest in research and development; and

– what to purchase and field.Rieker Women's N0356 Patrisha 56 Jeans/Denim 37 M EUSeychelles Women's Downstage Ballet Flat, Mustard, 8.5 M US

Source: Penguin Random House

As Michael E. Raynor pointed out in his book, Tory Burch Minnie Polka Dot Travel Ballet Flats Size 6.5, making choices and developing strategies, which include adopting new technology, where the future is unknowable and “deeply unpredictable” either produces monumental successes or monumental failures.JIMMY CHOO Black Textured Leather Pointed Toe Flats, Sz EU38.5/US8.5Micheal Kors Sherling Lined Logo Printed Canvas Khaki Slip On Flats Loafer NIB 9 For a company this can spell financial ruin, while for the Army, it can spell disaster and the loss of Soldiers’ lives and national treasure.  Yet, we must also choose a “way ahead” – often by considering “boundaries” – in a sense the left and right limits – of potential implications.

Second, our ability to predict when technology will become available is often in error nor can we accurately determine its implications. For example, in a New York Times editorial on December 8, 1903, it noted:  “A man carrying airplane will eventually be built, MARNI - ITALY - LADIES SANDALS - SIZE EURO 37Tory Burch Aaden Cork Ballet Flats 10mbut only if mathematicians and engineers work steadily for the next ten million years.”5  The Wright Brothers first flight took place the following week, but it took decades for commercial and military aviation to evolve.

The stillborn Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the U.S. Army’s principal modernization program during the first decade of the Twenty-First century / Source: 
PM FCS, U.S. Army

Each of the services has faced force modernization challenges due to the adoption of technologies that weren’t mature enough; whose capabilities were over-promised; or did not support operations in the envisioned Operational Environment.  For the U.S. Army, Future Combat Systems (FCS) was the most obvious and recent example of this challenge – costing billions of dollars and, just as importantly, lost time and confidence.Klogs Naples Mens - Womens Clogs White Smooth - 7.5 MediumJ CREW TWO-TONE LOAFER SHOES 7.5 ITEM #B4123 NEW

Third, in terms of future technology, predictions vary widely. For example, predictions by MIT’s Rodney Brooks and futurist/inventor Ray Kurzweil vary widely to the question – “What year do you think human-level Artificial Intelligence [AI, i.e., a true thinking machine] might be achieved with a 50% probability?” Kurzweil predicts AI (as defined) will be available in 2029, while Brooks is a bit more conservative – the year 2200 – a difference of over 170 years.Prada Ballerinas Flat Patent Square Toe women size 40 10EUC AGL Attilio Giusti Leombruni Welted Moc Loafer Nude Calf Size 39.5 US9,5M

While one can understand the difficulty of predicting when “general AI” will be available, other technologies offer similar difficulties. The vision of the “self-driving” autonomous vehicle was first written about and experimented with in the 1920s, yet technological limitations, legal concerns, customer fears, and other barriers make implementing this capability challenging.

Gartner Hype Cycle / Source: Nicole Saraco Loddo, Gartner

Lastly, as Rodney Brooks has highlighted, NEW J.CREW DULCI SUEDE KITTEN HEELS, SZ 7, A9758, KRAFT BROWN maintains:

we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”PRADA Black Napa Leather Espadrille Flats Retai $510.00

SECOND, THIRD ORDER AND EVIL EFFECTS

I contend that we either:Vionic Women's Snug Carnegie Mule Black 6 MNew Francesco V. Red Bow Leather shoes Flats 40 US 10

intentionally focus on the positive effects of adopting a technology;

ignore the experts and those who identify the potential downside of technology; and

fail to think thorough the short, long, and potentially dangerous effects or dependencies – imaginatively.

We do this because we are human, and more often because we fall into the confirmation bias or other cognitive thinking traps that might affect our program or pet technology. As noted by RAND in Truth Decay:NWB FRYE REBECCA PENNY LOAFER IN BORDEAUX SIZE 6.5Camper Women's Right Nina K200387 Ballet Flat, Black, 37 EU/7 M US

Source: Pixabay

Cognitive biases and the ways in which human beings process information and make decisions cause people to look for information, opinion, and analyses that confirm preexisting beliefs, to weigh experience more heavily than data and facts, and then to rely on mental shortcuts and the beliefs of those in the same social networks when forming opinions and making decisions.”9

Yet, the warning signs or signals for many unanticipated effects can be found simply by conducting a literature review of government, think tank, academic, and popular reports (to perhaps include science fiction). This may deter some, given the sheer volume of literature is often overwhelming, but contained within these reports are many of the challenges associated with future technology, such as:  the potential for deep fakes, loss of privacy, hacking,Men's/Women's tory burch Open Back loafers 9 New varieties are launched Known for its good quality Caramel, gentleCLARKS Women's Sillian Emma Walking Shoe, Aubergine Synthetic, 6 M US accidents, deception, and loss of industries/jobs.

At the national level, both the current and previous administrations published reports on AI, as has the Department of Defense – some more balanced in addressing of issues of fairness, safety, governance, and ethics.10

Source: PixabayOriginal SAS Easier Wine 0128-153 W Wide WomenSeychelles Women's Deep Sea Dark Grey Leather Ankle Boot

For example, using photo recognition to help law enforcement and others seems like a great idea, yet its use is increasingly being questioned. This past May, San Francisco became the first city to ban its use, and others may follow suit.11  While some question this decision to ban vice impose a moratorium until the technology produces less errors, the question remains – did the developers and policy makers consider if there would be push back to its introduction given its current performance?NIB Tory Burch Women's Cecily Embellished Espadrilles Shoes Light Chambray 7 MStuart Weitzman Bolshoi Ballet Flats 649, Blush, 6.5 US What sources did they consult?

Another challenge is language. You’ve seen the commercials – “there is much we can do with AI” – in farming, business, and even beer making.  While “AI” is a clever tag line, it may invoke unnecessary fear and misunderstanding.  For example, I believe for most people equate “robotics” and “AI” with the “Terminator” franchise, raising the fear of uncontrolled autonomous military force overwhelming humanity.  Even worse – under the moniker of “AI,” we will buy into “snake-oil” propositions.

We are at least decades away from “general AI” where a “system exhibits apparently intelligence behavior at least as advanced as a person” across the “full range of cognitive tasks,” but we continue to flaunt the use of “AI” without elaboration.Rockport Cobb Hill Women's Gigi Flat, Almond, 9.5 M USNEW w/o BOX - TORY BURCH ESPADRILLES (sz 6)

SOME ACTIONS TO TAKE

Embrace a learning organization. Popularized by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990), a learning organization is a place “where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning how to learn together.”Blondo Women's Basha Waterproof Flatform Espadrille Light Pink Suede Espadrilles While some question whether we can truly make a learning organization, Senge’s thinking may help solve our problem of identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects.

First, we must embrace new and expansive patterns of thinking.  Force developers use the acronym – “DOTMPLF-P” as shorthand for Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Personnel, Leadership, Facilities, and Policy implications – yet other factors might be as important.

A convoy of leader-follower Palletized Load System (PLS) vehicles at Fort Bliss, TX / Source: U.S. Army photo by Jerome AliottaMan's/Woman's Remonte Women's Gretchen 60 Sandal,Rosso Leather,M Wear resistant a wide range of products Lightweight shoesJimmy Choo Finlay Black Glitter Sparkle Woven Fabric Flats Size 35 1/2 US Size 5

For example, trust in automated or robotics systems must be instilled and measured.  In one poll, 73% of respondents noted they would be afraid of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle – up 10% points from the previous year.14  What if we develop a military autonomous vehicle or a leader-follower system and one or more of our host nation allies prohibits its use? What happens if an accident occurs and the host population protests, NWOB Free People Bryce Buckle Wrap Flat Shoe 8MVaneli Women's Grey Suede Pointed Toe Cuban Heel Ballet Shoes Size US 8 Marguing that the Americans don’t care for their safety?

Technologists and concept developers must move from being stove-piped in labs and single-focused to consider the broader view of technological implications across functions.

Embrace Humility. Given that we cannot predict the future and its potential consequences, developers must seek out diversified opinions, and more importantly, recognize divergent opinions.

U.S. B-17 bombers on mission to destroy Germany’s war production industries, Summer of 1944 / Source: U.S. Air Force photo

Embrace the Data.  In New York City during World War II, a small organization of some of the most brilliant minds in America worked in the office of the “Applied Mathematics Panel.”  In Europe, the 8th U.S. Air Force suffered from devastating bomber losses.  NIB Tory Burch Laila Ballet Driver Flats Shoes Silver Perfect Black 7.5 MVionic Women's 359SURIN-BLK - Surin Ballet FlatLeaders wondered where best to reinforce the bombers with additional armor without significantly increasing their weight to improve survivability. Reports indicated returning bombers suffered gunfire hits over the wings and fuselage, but not in the tail or cockpits, so to the casual observer it made sense to reinforce the wings and fuselage where the damage was clearly visible.

Abraham Wald, a mathematician, worked on the problem. He noted that reinforcing the spots where damage was evident in returning aircraft wasn’t necessarily the best course of action, given that hits to the cockpit and tail were probably causing aircraft (and aircrew) losses during the mission.  In a series of memorandums, he developed a “method of estimating plane vulnerability based on damage of survivors.” As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes noted more than 100 years ago,  “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”Nine West Women's Aquino Synthetic Pointed Toe Flat - Choose SZ/ColorFrances Valentine Bow Sandal Black/Sand Flats Flo Nylon Grosgain Bow 6.5 $145

Additionally, we need to reinforce our practice of performing quality literature reviews to aid in our identification of these issues.

The office of Devil’s Advocate was established by Pope Sixtus V in 1587 / Source: Wikimedia Commons, Artist unknownNine West Women's Novak Snake Fashion Sneaker - Choose SZ/ColorTORY BURCH Natural Royal Tan Weston Metallic Linen Espadrille Flats Size 10 New

Employ Skepticism and a Devil’s Advocate Approach.  In 1587, the Roman Catholic Church created the position of Promoter of the Faith – commonly referred to as the Devil’s Advocate. To insure a candidate for sainthood met the qualification of being canonized, the role of the Devil’s Advocate was to be the skeptic (loyal to the institution), looking for reasons why not to canonize the individual.  Similarly, Leaders must embrace the concept of employing a devil’s advocate approach to identifying 2nd/3rd order and evil effects of technology – if not designating a devil’s advocate with the right expertise to identify assumptions, risks, and effects. But creating any devil’s advocate or “risk identification” positions is only useful if their input is seriously considered.

Embrace the Suck.  Lastly, if we are serious in identifying the 2nd/3rd order and evil effects, Miu Miu Jewel-Heel Patent Bow Flat sz 36NIB Tory Burch Metallic Gold Minnie Travel Leather Ballet Flat Shoes (US 6.5)to include identifying new dependencies, ethical issues, or other issues which challenge the adaption or development of a new technology or policy – then we must be honest, resilient, and tough. There will be setbacks, delays, and frustration.

FINAL THOUGHT

Technology holds the power to improve and change our personal and professional lives.  For the military, technology changes the ways wars are fought (i.e., the character of war), but it may also change the nature of war by potentially reducing the “human dimension” in war.  If robotics, AI, and other technological developments eliminate “danger, physical exertion, intelligence and friction,”17 is war easier to wage?  Will technology increase its potential frequency?  Will technology create a further separation between the military and the population by decreasing the number of personnel needed? These may be some of the 2nd/3rd order and “evil” effects we need to consider.

If you enjoyed this post, please see Dr. Marsella’s previous post “Second/Third Order, and Evil Effects” – The Dark Side of Technology (NIB Tory Burch Leila Mestico Quilted Loafers Flats $295 8)

… as well as the following posts:Mephisto $349 Brand New Black Leather Slip On Loafers Shoes Womens Size 8 MAuthenic Manolo Blahnik Liana Fabric Glitter Black Tip 38 RARE

FINN COMFORT 6.5 US (4 UK), 'BIERUT' womens leather, S-W-45, by Dr. Nir Buras

Vince. Noella Brown Womens Shoes Size 8.5 M Flats MSRP 5

NEW - PAPUCEI - TEXTURED LEATHER CUTOUT SHOE - SIZE 40 Hand made] Women Point Toe Ballet Slingback Flat Shoes Sandals Stitch V Neck Ess

C-1242970 New Tory Burch Gray Pewter Quilted Billy Slippers Shoes Size US 6 npdtgh1538-Flats

[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish today’s post by guest blogger LTCOL Greg Colton, Australian Army, addressing the intellectual component of military power.  In our current drive to modernize the U.S. Army into a Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)-Capable Force by 2028 and set the conditions for fielding an MDO-Ready Force in 2035, we must not forget the lessons learned from our last major transformation in the 1980s. Man's/Woman's Prada flats women shoes Big clearance sale Clearance Full range of specificationsMan/Woman Lanvin Suede Cap-Toe Ballerina Flat Crazy price, Birmingham Comfortable touch Highly appreciated and widely trusted in and out The tactical and operational excellence that enabled us to completely rout Iraqi ground forces in 100 hours was not only the result of effective doctrine and the acquisition of the “Big 5” weapon systems, but also due to the development of our Combat Training Centers (CTCs) and Leader Development platforms like the Non-Commissioned Officer Education System and the School of Advanced Military Studies. Read on to learn how one of our key allies is approaching their Army’s Professional Military Education.]

LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army

We must push ourselves to think in creative and unconstrained ways to ensure our warfighting philosophy is appropriate and informs our future capabilities” — LTGEN Rick Burr, Australian Chief of Army, in Accelerated Warfare

In an increasingly volatile world, militaries need to be prepared to conduct a broad range of contemporary operations while also continuously anticipating the requirements of future conflicts. As the Australian Chief of Army Gentle Souls Women's Bay Braid, “Preparedness is dynamic. It requires us to be ready now, while concurrently becoming future ready.” Key to this is the development of the Tory Burch Lowell 2 Ballet Leopard Print Size 8.5, both of individuals and of the Army as an organisation, so that the Army is able to adapt to changes in circumstances quickly enough to win future conflicts.

Yet, as the Marc Jacobs Women's Halsey Pointy Ballerina Ballet Flat - 6.5 points out, “military institutions recognize the need for leaders who can adapt, but struggle with exactly how to teach or train them to do so.” Within the Australian Army, Professional Military Education (PME) is an important component of a wider approach that blends training, education, and experience to develop a workforce able to cope with the demands of war in an ever-changing environment.

The Army’s approach to PME

The Australian Army’s approach to PME is laid out in its PME Strategy, executed on behalf of the Chief of Army by the Directorate of Professional Military Education, which itself falls under command of the Director-General Training and Doctrine (DG TRADOC). The Directorate uses two broad approaches to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power. First, using the principle of connectivism it seeks to connect those who can impart specialist knowledge to the workforce. Secondly, it seeks to develop organisational adaptability through promoting a contest of ideas. It delivers these approaches through a number of different mechanisms which allows content to be tailored to the target audience. These mechanisms include its online portal, Drew Women's Fiesta Comfort Shoes Black Calf, unit PME packages, webinars, and conferences.

Connectivism

Trialing a UGV during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2019 with the U.S. / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; CPL Tristan Kennedy, Photographer

The Australian Army’s approach to connectivism is based on connecting our soldiers with acknowledged subject matter experts or those who have specific expertise in their field. A good example of the former is TX Hammes who gave a CoveTalk on the development of artificial intelligence in unmanned platforms, while an example of the latter is this article by a military workshop manager on improving the efficiency of his workshop’s layout and processes. Regardless of the source, connectivism enables the Army to link both experts and expertise with the wider workforce to develop the intellectual component of fighting power within our individual soldiers and officers. In doing so, it promotes the dissemination of best practice across the force.

Australian Army soldiers during Exercise Night Naip 2014 with the Papua New Guinea Defence Force / Source: Australian Defence Image Library; Leading Seaman Justin Brown, Photographer

However, this approach only provides half of the solution. For argument’s sake, let’s take as a given that warfare is an ever-evolving phenomenon. As such,ARA WOMEN'S RACHEL WALKING COMFORT WEDGE SHOE STYLETory Burch Lowell 2 Ballet Flat Chambray Size 7.5 best practice in and of itself cannot be enough, as the very term indicates the pre-determination of an optimal solution derived within a static set of variables. The uniqueness of each theatre, campaign, battlefield, or individual soldier’s field of fire will mean that the variables on which best practice has been developed will never exactly replicate. Consequently, tactical solutions to complex problems will rarely (if ever) be found using a cookie cutter Dr. Martens Black Salome Patent Lamper Block Heel Oxford Shoes, size 7Burberry women espadrille shoes hodgeson col flat pink pale russet size 38template. Instead, we need an Army that is institutionally flexible enough to recognise and incorporate emerging practice to solve unique problem sets. In other words, if best practice provides the theoretical foundations required to understand the tactical problem, emerging practice provides the intellectual adaptability to actually solve it.

A contest of ideas

This leads us to the second approach we use to enhance the intellectual component of fighting power: rag & bone Dixon Ankle Boot Granite Suede Grey Booties 39.5 EU / 8.5 M New $525DANSKO WOMENS XP 2.0 DENIM PATENT SIZE promoting a contest of ideas.  Fostering a culture of contesting ideas has two benefits. Firstly, it gives our people the confidence to analyse the unique problem set they are faced with and recommend bespoke solutions to a hierarchy that is often one or two steps removed from the ground truth. Secondly, and just as importantly, it inculcates an organisational culture within the Army that is willing to recognise, and accept, emerging practice (i.e., the recommendations from those trying to solve the current problem) rather than always insisting on best practice (i.e., what we have always done in similar circumstances). This is essential if we are to win future wars.New VINCE Size 6.5 DAVY Black Suede Creeper Slip On Sneakers Shoes 36 1/2NEW320$ Stuart Weitzman Myguy Women's Shoes Blush Tripoli :7.5 M,Genuine leather

Australian Army Boxer 8×8 Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle (CRV) with 30mm automatic cannon / Source:  Multiple Australian media sites

A good example of how the Australian Army promotes a contest of ideas is The Cove’s recent NIB TORY BURCH JESSE QUILTED SNEAKER SIZE 7.5 FRENCH GRAY, in which readers were invited to submit a ‘script’ of no more than 100 words on what they thought the Army of 2030 should look like. Run over the period of a calendar month, it generated 48 entries from a broad range of authors,Love Moschino Women's Quilted Metal Logo Loafers ShoesNEW $840 DOLCE & GABBANA Shoes Flats Green Paglia Tassel Sicily s. EU36.5 / US6 from front-line practitioners to life-long academics. Collectively, these scripts were viewed over 93,000 times in 31 days and were the genesis for numerous comments on our website, within units and messes across the country, and on social media. At the end of the competition,NWB $330 AGL 'Blakely' Studded Cap Toe Ballet Flat Black [37.5 37 1/2]Marc Jacobs sz 9.5 M red velvet ballet flats Shoes brand new in box the entries and online discussion were captured and passed on to the Australian Army’s Directorate of Future Land Warfare to inform its work.

This ‘crowd sourcing’ of ideas doesn’t just support the work of those tasked with thinking about the future structures and capabilities of the Army. It also encourages the Army’s people to think about the future of warfare, encourages debate on how the organisation can best meet the challenges of the future, and gives our people the confidence to contribute to that debate.

A complementary approach

The Australian Army’s Combat Training Centre – Jungle Training Wing (CTC-JTW) in TullyIrregular Choice, Clown slip on flats, size 38, 7 1/2, foot length 9.375 inchesArche Laius Slip On - Women's Size 8 Gold

Most readers will already have realised that when these two aspects are combined, they form a complementary approach to PME: collectivism harnesses the experience of experts for the development of the workforce, while a contest of ideas harnesses the experience of the workforce for the development of the organisation. If the Army is to be truly adaptive, one cannot exist without the other. An organisation which always insists on best practice, rather than emerging practice,CHLOE Chestnut Brown Skimmer Ballet Flats/Buckle, Stitching NEW Size 37.5 is risking ruin through imposing dogmatic solutions to complex problems, while an army that automatically reacts to instantaneous suggestions from the workforce, ungrounded in theoretical understanding, risks repeating the mistakes of the past.

Thus, contributions need to be sought from a broad range of viewpoints if the Army is to be ready for future conflict. As Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank is at New Brunello Cucinelli Metallic Copper Slip On Loafer EU SZ 38 $798:  “Nobody has a monopoly on good ideas.” This is particularly important to remember within hierarchical organisations such as the military.TORY BURCH MINNIE TRAVEL PRINTED LEATHER BALLET FLAT, US 7.5 Nantucket Red MultiOpening Ceremony Leah Pearl Oxfords Black US 7.5/ It can be all too easy for generals, staff officers, or senior public servants to fall into the trap of believing that experience alone is the foundation of hard-earned knowledge, and that new ideas from juniors that challenge doctrine, the status quo, or the strategic narrative are unnecessarily subversive.

Soldiers from the 7th Combat Signal Regiment (7 CSR) / Source:  NIB TORY BURCH Verbena Snake Embossed Leather/Gold Patent Ballet Flat Size 11 MMax Mara derbies en cuir ACAPULCO - NEUF - P 39 EU

Yet, when the next war comes it will not be the desk officers or policy experts that do the fighting, or the dying, in foreign fields. It is the young military practitioner who, regardless of rank, will find themselves trying to solve a unique problem set in the most testing of circumstances. In the words of Nassim Taleb, it is they who have ‘Chloe Leather Lauren Flats in Natural Size 38.’ As such, we owe that young soldier or officer not only the very best foundational professional military education we can give them, but also an organisation willing and able to adapt to bespoke solutions based on ground truth. As an Army, we must set the conditions such that our people challenging the status quo and contesting ideas is our organisation’s comfort zone.

This requires a complementary approach to PME, developed and delivered now, so that we may enhance the intellectual component of fighting power in time for the Army to fight, and win, the next war. It is an approach that the team at The Cove is dedicated to delivering for the Australian Army.

If you enjoyed this post, please read: Lacoste Tamora Hi Black Women's Leather High Top 7-31CAW0142024PRADA Zebra Print Flats Loafers Pont Hair, Point Toe.